Saturday morning wrap of forecast LOR conditions in NSW

There’s been a fair number of relevant Market Notices from AEMO overnight, so I thought it would be easiest to include this snapshot from ez2view, looking at forecast LOR condition in NSW via the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget at the 09:05 dispatch interval this morning:


Readers should recall that this widget allows users to ‘look up a vertical’ to ‘see that other dimension of time

With respect to the coming days:

Saturday 18th May (i.e. today) there is a brief duration of forecast LOR1 persisting for this evening.

Sunday 19th May  the most recent forecast run has seen a downgrade (to forecast LOR1) of what had been a long-duration stretch of forecast LOR2 for Sunday evening.

Monday 20th May  appears the most challenged of the coming days, with both:

(a)  forecast LOR2 for Monday morning; and

(b)  forecast LOR2 for Monday evening.

Tuesday 21st May  sees both:

(a)  forecast LOR1 for Tuesday morning; and

(b)  forecast LOR1 for Tuesday evening.

Wednesday 22nd May  sees both:

(a)  forecast LOR1 for Wednesday morning; and

(b)  forecast LOR1 for Wednesday evening.


Reminders about LOR forecasts

As noted in other recent articles, the purpose of these forecasts is to elicit a market response (e.g. more supply of some form, or changed demand profile, or changed network outage scheduled).

So we will wait to see what unfolds over the coming days.


Longer term context … from the Grattan Report

Worth also noting that, in the recent Grattan Report, they included a discussion about the trend of incidence of Actual LOR conditions per regions, with this figure being supplied:


Note that the numbers shown in the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget  are for forecasts of LOR condition, but the general thrust is that these incidences of are increasing in NSW … which is another indicator of what we wrote way back in the the GRC2018 (as Theme 2) in that ‘the level of risk in the NEM is escalating’.


Deeper understanding … in GenInsights Quarterly Updates

In Appendix 1 our own GenInsights Quarterly Updates series of analysis, we drill into considerable detail about the evolution of these LOR forecasts for the quarterly under focus, and changes over time.

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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