AEMO ‘forecast LOR2’ for Monday morning 20th May 2024 currently growing tighter

This morning we have already posted the article ‘… but ER02 return to service hit a snag (Thu 16th May 2024) – now possibly out until Tue 21st May 2024’, … and followed on to write how this extended outage has mixed with low wind and solar forecast for Monday morning 20th May to deliver a new ‘forecast LOR2’ condition for NSW.

At 11:21 this morning the AEMO published an update on the market of a forecast LOR2 condition for Monday morning 20th May 2024:


From : AEMO
Creation Date : 17/05/2024 11:21:55


Notice ID : 116642
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 17/05/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 20/05/2024


Reason :


The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 116641 has been updated at 1000 hrs 17/05/2024 to the following:

From 0600 hrs 20/05/2024 to 0830 hrs 20/05/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1240 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 868 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations



Note that:

1)   the ‘minimum capacity reserve available’ has dropped from 1121MW (in MN116641 at 08:56) to be 868MW (in MN116642 at 11:21):

(a)    i.e. down 253MW.

(b)  though still well above 0MW

2)  and also that the duration of the tightness has extended (now 06:00 to 08:00)

3)  Again – readers should remember that the purpose of these forecasts from the AEMO is to elicit a market response, so by the time we get to Monday morning I hope it’s all abated.


Interesting times!

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

1 Comment on "AEMO ‘forecast LOR2’ for Monday morning 20th May 2024 currently growing tighter"

  1. While not being supportive of these problems, shortfalls of wind reliability would put in close focus the reliance of wind

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