ICYMI – COAG EC flags reliability framework changes
Guest author, Allan O'Neil tries to piece together further detail of what is intended with the apparent tightening of the Reliability Standard (which has sat at 0.002% USE for many years).
Long-Term Market trends and forecasts
Review of extremes in ‘Raw Off Target’ performance through 2019, with the Generator Statistical Digest 2019
Using the (hot off the press) Generator Statistical Digest 2019, we take a look across all 304 DUIDs to see how they performed through calendar 2019 in terms of large excesses in 'Raw Off-Target'...
About ERM’s two rule change proposals in at the AEMC
Two earlier articles today prompt this follow-on piece, specifically focusing on what's being requested by ERM Power in two separate rule change requests relating to the MT PASA process.
Some insights about Loy Yang A unit 1 from CAL 2019 (using a draft of the ‘B’ page from the GSD2019)
Another weekend reviewing progress on the Generator Statistical Digest 2019 (nearing completion) and I thought it would be of interest to share some insights about Loy Yang A unit 1 that jump of the...
The collapse in Queensland renewable energy investment – the canary in the coal mine
Guest author, Tristan Edis, looks particularly at the Queensland Region of the NEM, and an almost complete stop in the development of new renewables projects.
AEMO forecasts new “lowest ever” demand today in South Australia – but misses by 200MW
A quick look at what would have been a new "lowest ever" point for SA Scheduled Demand today at 12;30 ... if the AEMO forecast had held to be valid.
Almost three years on – reflections on Frequency Control in the NEM
Guest author (and power system control specialist), Kate Summers, looks at what's changed since she published a paper on frequency control in the NEM back in January 2017.
‘Duck Curve’ delivers declining Minimum Demand levels in South Australia
An email alert from NEMwatch (noting Scheduled Demand under 500MW in South Australia today) distracts us, and prompts us to dig a little deeper at the longer-term trend.
Longer-term trends of low (and high) dispatch prices in the NEM across all regions.
Our various dashboard views of the NEM (NEMwatch, ez2view and deSide) have been showing what's seemed like increasing numbers of zero and negative prices in the NEM recently - particularly in QLD. Coupled with...
AEMO releases its 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – more tinder for the “energy wars” fire…
AEMO releases its Electricity Statement of Opportunities today, with an initial flurry of press coverage. Another reminder of heightened risk that the NEM is increasingly facing...
A twenty year review of Marginal Loss Factors
Last week the AEMO released a draft of the Marginal Loss Factors (MLFs) that would apply to both generation and loads connected to the NEM. This page on the AEMO site links to more...
AGL Investor Presentation reports on Portfolio Availability–we take a look for key Stations
AGL released its investor presentation yesterday - several people flagged the availability stats within the presentation (they knew we were looking at aspects of reliability for our Generator Report Card 2018). Hence I take...
2018 – the year fossil fuels began an inexorable decline
Guest author, Tristan Edis, takes a look at the changing pattern of generation by fuel type in 2018
Electricity demand stopped declining after 2014 (on a NEM-wide, Annual Average basis)
A comment made by TransGrid at the Energy Networks 2018 conference today jolted me to update my (somewhat) outdated paradigm of declining demand.
A selected (and evolving) chronology of the QLD Government’s involvement in the QLD Generation sector
Here's a chronological record of key aspects of government involvement in the generation sector within Queensland.
It’s very misleading to claim “Since the introduction of the National Electricity Market in 1996 the wholesale price of energy has risen dramatically”
The wholesale cost of electricity has risen (too fast, too high) in recent years. However let's not let ourselves be conned into believing that this has arisen, now, because of the creation of the...
Fast Frequency Service – Treating the symptom not the cause?
The National Electricity Market (NEM) is designed to operate at 50 Hz. Frequency deviation occurs when generation and load are mismatched. It is important in a lightly meshed and long network such as the...
Where is the east coast domgas development boom?
When markets operate normally, a sharp rise in the price of any commodity triggers a boom in exploration, development and new supply. But this is not seeming to happen in response to high domestic...
Barcaldine Solar Farm output – and the audacious 50% by 2030 renewables ambition
A quick look at first output of Barcaldine Solar Farm - as a segue into consideration of what we see as an "audacious" 50% by 2030 ambition.
Forecasting is a Mug’s Game
The three main flaws that put boundaries on the usefulness of all forecasting/modelling