How bidding at Semi-Scheduled units has adjusted for the moving target of ‘negative LGC’
Following a couple articles about the downwards trend of spot LGC price, we look at how that's fed into 'negative LGC' bid prices for VRE.
Large-Scale VRE
Cataloguing various pieces of analysis with respect to VRE (variable renewable energy).
How well forecast in advance was the new all-time record for peak NEM-wide wind?
With memories still fresh of how poorly the batteries performed* in South Australia on 21st and 22nd June 2026, we take a look at another aspect of predictability - with respect to the recent all-time peak in NEM-wide wind production.
A further look at wind forecasts in the ST PASA timeframe
The trend for declining skill as outlook increases is fairly linear. Encouragingly, outlooks at the 6-day mark still have better skill than random.
An initial look at 6-day ahead Wind Uncertainty
Uncertainty fluctuates considerably in the 6-day ahead forecasts. Some locations, appear to be generally more predictable than others, Queensland sites in particular.
Snippets from ‘Workshop 3’ (on 11th May 2026) with respect to the ST PASA Replacement Project
We’re approaching the end of May 2026, which means we’re almost 10 months since the 31st July 2025 go-live date for unit-level data (and other changes) in ST PASA. … our ez2view software was upgraded to v9.12 in June 2025 in anticipation of those changes,...
A quick initial look at operations at the Wambo Wind Farm (WAMBOWF1)
Several recent conversations with different people prompted a look at the (under commissioning) Wambo Wind Farm via the GSD2025 and our Software. We share some of this here.
Keeping up with the curtailment 2025: Beneath the headline numbers
This latest instalment of our annual review into solar and wind farm curtailment across the NEM, looks at outcomes in 2025 and highlights increasingly divergent results by region and by asset as network constraints, pricing dynamics and seasonal weather conditions interact.
Belatedly noting the ASL presentation ‘Resilience to Variable Renewable Energy Lulls’
Also worth pointing readers here to the 27-page presentation delivered on 5th November 2025 by ASL following modelling of possible evolution of ‘Resilience to Variable Renewable Energy Lulls’ into the future in a climate changed world.
Comparing AggROT for (44x) Coal Units with AggROT for Semi-Scheduled units through the history of the NEM
On Sunday (following from the discussion at the NEMdev conference in Brisbane a few weeks ago, and leading into this week’s All Energy 2025 in Melbourne) I highlighted these ‘Two *big concerns* that we urge the Nelson Review panel to (re)consider (with respect to Invisible...
Peeling the second layer of the onion, with respect to the (SemiSched-induced) frequency weakness on Thursday 16th October 2025
Having already noted the ‘Weakness in frequency stability on Thursday afternoon 16th October 2025’, we take a look at the causes - for the four high-profile dispatch intervals.
Three broader questions (re)triggered by the Frequency Spike on Tuesday 19th August 2025
The (concerning) frequency spike across the NEM in the middle of the day (Tuesday 19th August 2025) has triggered many proximate questions - understandable - but also has raised these 3 Broader Questions.
East coast low brings challenging conditions for start of July in 2025
The weather forecasts are alerting to the formation of an East Coast Low this week. The low is expected to sit just off the eastern cost of Australia, adjacent New South Wales.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 5 – afternoon underestimations
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 4 – avoiding SDC periods
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – under the hood of part 1
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
A trend of aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ for each Semi-Scheduled fuel type on Monday 26th May 2025
Let’s now return to Monday 26th May 2025 to look at aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ across both Semi-Scheduled fuel types for all dispatch intervals in the day.
Was Monday evening’s new record wind production well forecast in advance?
Taking a closer look at the new 'highest ever' point for NEM-wide Wind Production on Monday 26th May 2025, and how well this was forecast in advance.