A sequence of two articles we’ve written has attracted some attention (with some conversations at 2026 ACES noting the more recent one):

• As the last calendar year closed out, we published this ‘Sixteen years of spot price for LGC, at the end of 2025’.
• and then followed this in July 2026 with ‘Spot LGC prices down the gurgler…’, which focused on the most recent 18 months.

Not just at 2026 ACES, but also more recently, we’ve been involved in some questions about how this ‘down to zero’ LGC spot price trend:

• has influenced ‘negative LGC’ bidding … at least for VRE units not contracted at some pre-set price for their output;
• and has then fed into reduced price spreads for batteries – discussed here in other articles, such as:
  • in April by Dan via ‘Is the battery rollout following in solar’s footsteps — and is a battery correlation penalty looming?’; and then
  • in July by Franz via ‘Is the NEM’s battery fleet starting to compete with itself?’.

Utilising the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view and stretching the look-back period beyond its ‘normal’ usage we can gain some sense of how bid bands for Semi-Scheduled VRE units have changed over time …

Wind Farm (Semi-Scheduled units)

Here’s a back-wards looking one-year long view of Wind Farm Bids (as submitted*) across  the entire Semi-Scheduled wind farm fleet

* remember:

(a)  that Semi-Scheduled bids are submitted without taking into account the availability of the underlying energy resource (in this case, wind) … and then subsequently modified by the UIGF for the unit … whether via the self-forecast or from AEMO (AWEFS, FCST or other).

(b)  Linton’s explainer ‘What inputs and processes determine a semi-scheduled unit’s availability’ is a useful reference here.

Key point here is that, because we want to more clearly see the underlying commercial driver (as distinct from the physical situation) we strip the UIGF from the trend and can see:

Remember to click on the image to open a larger-screen view.

Notes here:

1)  By default, ez2view offers a ‘Default Price Bucket’ categorisation of bids that utilising our standard blue-green-and-red categorisation:

(a)  which is useful in many circumstances;

(b)  and has left to this series of articles about Bids in ‘blue, green and red’.

2)  However in this case:

(a)  I’ve wanted to focus on bids in the range $0/MWh down to –$100/MWh just for VRE units (here for wind)

(b)  so I have:

i.  added many purplish colours in 10 x $10 ranges just below $0/MWh

ii.  and simplified below –$100/MWh and above $0/MWh.

3)  As noted above, we’ve focused on bids as submitted.

4)  From this, we can clearly see some patterns:

(a)  A fairly consistent pattern of bids down at the –$1,000/MWh market price floor (perhaps 33% of volume offered), albeit that:

i.  This has grown smoother (less frequent periodic reductions) from May 2026;

ii.  And has also grown in height

(b)  There’s a sizeable volume (perhaps ~10%) above the MPF but at or below –$100/MWh

… which I’m guessing does not care directly about spot LGC, but does not want to be dispatched if the spot price were to fall to the MPF

(c)  There’s also ongoing (small) spurts of volume above $0/MWh

(d)  But ~55% of the volume offered is in the ‘negative LGC’:

i.  Which has clearly shifted upwards, even in this relatively short historical period

ii.  It’s around November-December 2025 when bids between –$10/MWh and $0/MWh begin to emerge … which matches what was shown here for spot LGC prices.

iii.  Though there is also a sizeable volume that remains bid between –$69.99/MWh and –$60/MWh … which is, I’m guessing, from volume that forward-sold LGCs at prices that existed in the past (but not since late 2022, as seen here).

There’s obviously more that could be gleaned from this year-long view (and clients with licences to ez2view are welcome to create their own bid bands and see for themselves…)

Solar Farm (Semi-Scheduled units)

Here’s a similar back-wards looking one-year long view of Solar Farm Bids (as submitted*) across  the entire Semi-Scheduled wind farm fleet:

Some brief notes:

1)  Perhaps because of the diurnal nature of solar yield and the duck curve on prices:

(a)  It’s a noticeably lower percentage of volume bid at the Market Price Floor (perhaps only 23%)

(b)  And also similar on prices below –$100/MWh

2)  In terms of the ‘negative LGC’:

(a)  The bulk of the volume was historically bid at higher ‘negative LGC’ prices than for wind

… perhaps due to the later arrival in the market of many solar units (i.e. after LGC prices had already been falling)?

(b)  But the Nov-Dec 2025 arrival of prices above –$10/MWh is quite similar in pattern.

That’s all for now…