East coast low brings challenging conditions for start of July in 2025
The weather forecasts are alerting to the formation of an East Coast Low this week. The low is expected to sit just off the eastern cost of Australia, adjacent New South Wales.
Variable Renewable Energy (VRE)
A collation of articles pertaining to VRE … which we refer to in the GRC2018 and GenInsights21 as ‘Anytime/Anywhere Energy’.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 5 – afternoon underestimations
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 4 – avoiding SDC periods
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – under the hood of part 1
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
A trend of aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ for each Semi-Scheduled fuel type on Monday 26th May 2025
Let’s now return to Monday 26th May 2025 to look at aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ across both Semi-Scheduled fuel types for all dispatch intervals in the day.
Was Monday evening’s new record wind production well forecast in advance?
Taking a closer look at the new 'highest ever' point for NEM-wide Wind Production on Monday 26th May 2025, and how well this was forecast in advance.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for solar units, Q1 2025
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
Aligning business cases with the current, and future, reality
Following his presentation at the CEC's Wind Industry Forum, Jonathon Dyson shares lessons learned from helping developers and operators of wind projects in solidifying their business case.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for wind units, Q1 2025
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
Four days in the NEM in four minutes
Dan shares a short time-lapse video which demonstrates four days worth of activity in the NEM, highlighting the impact of network congestion in QLD and NSW.
Games that self-forecasters can* play (Part 1 – An Overview)
I've promised to write this article for some time, but a few recent events (and looming start of FPP) have caused me to publish this now.
The challenge of imperfect foresight: Storage operation in a highly renewable NEM
Josh Boegheim from Powerlink discusses the limitations of perfect foresight assumptions for system planning—and shares results from a recent study that simulated energy storage dispatch using deterministic and stochastic forecasting approaches.
AER wrote letters to Semi-Scheduled participants (and others) with respect to ‘Expectations surrounding the use of self-forecasting’
At the end of February 2025, the AER wrote to Semi-Scheduled generators, and other interested parties, warning of the AER’s concerns about self-forecasting practices.
Is VRE forecastable? (Part 1 in what might be a series)
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...
What’s happened to those Semi-Scheduled units registered to provide FCAS?
Following a question from a client today, we take a quick look at (some of) what the GSD2024 reveals of FCAS market participation of Semi-Scheduled units.
AER published ‘Semi-Scheduled Generator Compliance Bulletin’ on Tuesday 4th February 2025
Two weeks after the AER published its updated Compliance Bulletin (and Compliance Checklist) for Semi-Scheduled units, we've finally found time to note about it.
A look at curtailment through the GSD2024
After reviewing the latest version of our Generator Statistical Digest (GSD), David Leitch shares his top insights about VRE curtailment across the NEM in 2024.