A hot day in QLD today!
High temperatures in Queensland drive demand up on New Year’s Eve.
summer
An update on entries we’ve received (thus far) with 3 working days to go!
An overview of the estimates to date for the peak demand guessing competition of summer 2008-2009.
Summer 2008-2009
Collected articles on the notable events of the summer of 2008-2009.
Who was the Winner? (for Summer 2006-07)
The results of the peak demand forecasting competition for summer 2006-2007.
What happened to the competition? (for Summer 2007-08)
We did not run the competition for summer 2007-08, but we did have, however, some occasions to perform analysis of summer 2007-08.
The return of the BBQ as prize for the Peak demand picking competition (for Summer 2008-09)
Guess the peak demand for summer 2008-2009 and win a “Beefmaster Premium 6 on Side Burner Cart” barbeque.
A review of recent summers in the NEM
A brief analysis of NEM-wide demand and IRPM during the summer months over the past 4 years.
Who’s the best demand forecaster in the NEM?
The great bi-annual peak demand forecasting competition. Prove your forecasting prowess and you could win a great seasonal prize!
Who was the Winner? (for Summer 2005-06)
The results of the peak demand forecasting competition for summer 2005-2006.
Cost of congestion to energy users
For the EUAA’s Members Meeting (held in Brisbane on 24th April 2008), our Managing Director was invited to provide of a précis of the presentation he previously provided at the “QLD Energy” conference (on 12th March 2008).
In particular, comments made by Paul with respect to the proposed upgrade to QNI – which was topical at the time of the conference, given that Powerlink and TransGrid had released their analysis of several upgrade options in the same week as the conference.
As a result of the presentation, Duncan Hughes wrote an article about the potential cost to energy users of the upgrade, and published this in the Australian Financial Review on 13th March 2008.
Given the magnitude of the numbers reported, this issue has proved to be of significant issue to large energy users – hence the invitation to present at the Member’s Meeting.
Summer 2006-2007 – Miscellaneous Articles
Over the period of summer 2006-07, we prepared a number of articles about other occasions of note in the NEM (in addition to the blackout of 16th January 2007, which has been written about separately).
Analysis of price volatility in the QLD region over summer 2007-08
Our Managing Director was asked to speak at the “Queensland Energy” conference in Brisbane on Wednesday 12th March – specifically addressing the topic of price volatility in the NEM.
To provide the basis of discussion during the conference, we focused our analysis solely on Queensland region (to make the topic more manageable).
In our review of volatility in the Queensland region, we focused specifically on 3 core attributes of the market: Queensland dispatch prices; NEM-Wide Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin; and the concept of “Economic Islands”.
Summer 2005-2006 – Miscellaneous Articles
Over the period of summer 2005-06, we prepared a number of articles about other occasions of note in the NEM. These articles are linked here.
Summer 2007-2008 – how did it impact on the NEM?
Summer 2007-08 was really a story of two different summers, with very mild temperatures experienced in the north (resulting in low levels of demand) but with sweltering temperatures in the south (and huge demand as a result). This does not…
22nd and 23rd February 2008 – a rare hot spell in Queensland
In Queensland we experienced one of the mildest summers I can remember. As a result of this, demand levels were subdued for most of summer. However, for a couple of days in late February, summer finally arrived, and struck with a vengeance.
Weekly summary of events in Summer 2006-2007
We compiled a week-by-week summary of interesting events that occurred in the NEM – from 19th November 2006 through until 16th January 2007 (the day of the blackout).
Nous Report, into blackout of 16th January 2007
Note about the NOUS Group report on the blackout in Victoria of 16th January 2007
11th January 2007 – first spike in demand above 30,000MW
There was a temperature-driven spike in demand across the NEM later in the week beginning Sunday 7th January – culminating in the summer’s first demand peak above 30,000MW (on Thursday 11th January).
On this occasion, the spot price spiked above $1000/MWh in Queensland, NSW, Snowy and Victoria,
8th December 2006 – high demand in South Australia
There was a temperature-driven spike in demand in South Australia on Friday 8th December 2006.
However, demand also spiked on other days in the week, and on those occasions did not lead to the price spikes seen on the Friday.
7th December 2005 – high demand in Queensland and NSW
For several days in early December, temperatures reaching 40 degrees in Queensland and New South Wales cause airconditioning load (and hence total demand) to soar in both regions.
The high demands resulted in very high prices being experienced in both QLD and NSW (and also the SNOWY region). Both VIC and SA were insulated from the high prices because (at least in part) of the fact that transfers over the SNOVIC interconnector were constrained to minimise negative inter-regional surplus