Five thought-provoking questions about what really happened in Queensland over summer 2013 – and the supplementary question about what it all means for the future.
Beginning prior to 7am and progressing through the morning of Wednesday 2nd January 2013, there was significant volatility in the Queensland region of the National Electricity Market – including four spikes at or above $1,000/MWh.
Here’s a walk-through of how it unfolded, with some pointers to some of the contributing factors.
Why are we investing significant time in completing this review of what was remarkable price volatility in QLD over summer? We’re primarily a software company that develops shrink-wrapped products used by about 100 market participants, spectators and commentators.
Here’s an animated view of how price volatility emerged in the Queensland region of the National Electricity Market emerged on 20th December 2012 – and the range of factors that contributed.
A view of how NEM-wide demand trended over summer, with respect to our Best Demand Forecaster in the NEM competition.
Some high temperatures in Victoria and South Australia drive demand higher and, because of transmission constraints, the IRPM in the Economic Island lower.
The price spiked yesterday (Monday 18th February) in South Australia and Victoria – here’s an overview of what happened.
A clear view of who are the bears, and who are the bulls, in terms of where they have forecasted the peak demand for summer 2012-13 will finally land.
A starting list of a number of factors that combined to deliver sustained higher wholesale electricity prices in the Queensland region across the weekend of Saturday 12th January and Sunday 13th January 2013.
A record of the highest NEM-wide demand so far during summer 2012-13. A useful reference, for all of those who entered our “Best Demand Forecaster in the NEM” competition this time, and for those who sat on the sidelines.
An extra-ordinary weekend in Queensland, where the mercury stays up and so does electricity demand and (as a result, plus with some help from other factors) so does price.
A record of a hot day that drove NEM-Wide demand to the highest level it has achieved (thus far) this summer. See this in context of historical maximum levels.
A snapshot of a day of contrast – with high demand in Queensland (temperature driven) and extraordinarily low demand in the south.
The mercury in Sydney topped the 40 degree mark today, but demand did not climb to the heights it achieved when it set the record 2 summers ago.
A preliminary look at a number of events that happened today, leading to prices spiking to the Market Price Cap in a number of regions, Demand Side Response being very active, and trading desks being very busy.
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With a severe weather warning issued for much of Australia (with Sydney and Brisbane almost being the only exceptions) and lasting several days, it’s timely to look at what AEMO is forecasting demand to be in the week ahead.
A longer-term look at how summer (peak and average) demand has trended over the 15 years of NEM history to date.
Here’s our regular, annual and popular call-to-calculators for all those who’ve drawn the short straw and have to work on through the Christmas -to- New Year this summer season. Turn the tables on those off enjoying some summer sun, or skiing way up north by getting your entry in – with a chance to be anointed “Best Demand Forecaster in the NEM” and celebrate with your own new BBQ (or some other new prizes).
An interesting day in the NEM today, with prices gyrating across a wide spectrum, and across all four mainland regions – on the back of higher demand in Victoria and South Australia due to temperatures there, and supported by transmission issues and other factors.
Three images from NEM-Watch highlighting extremes of pricing in the Queensland region of the National Electricity Market today – illustrating the volatility, and hence the opportunities for Demand Side Response.