Following the weather warning, what’s the demand outlook in the south?

Following this extreme weather warning covering the next week or so, we opened up the PASA analysis component within ez2view to have a look at what AEMO is forecasting the demand in each region to be over the coming week.

For South Australia:

We see, in the snapshot from ez2view, that the hot weather is expected to drive demand north (to a high level, considering the holiday season).

A week-ahead demand forecast for South Australia

In this chart we see that, under the 50% Probability of Excedence forecast for the South Australian demand shape, Monday and Thursday next week are currently seen to be the days with the highest demand (though still not in the 3,400MW range that would lead to it being a new record).

For Victoria:

The analogous snapshot from ez2view is as follows:

A week-ahead demand forecast for Victoria

Similarly, we see demand forecast to peak on Monday next week – but still well below the massive levels seen in the heatwave leading up to Black Saturday 2009.

For Tasmania:

Further south, we see that the Tasmanian demand will be relatively unperturbed by extremes in temperature (given that it is more heavily dominated by a few large industrial loads):

A week-ahead demand forecast for Tasmania

For NSW and QLD:

Not posted about, here – though those with their own copies of ez2view can perform their own analysis.

Plenty of data to ponder in relation to our summer challenge – for the Best Demand Forecasters in the NEM.

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

2 Comments on "Following the weather warning, what’s the demand outlook in the south?"

  1. Everyone still on holidays here in SA…

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