Sorted entries, in our annual “Best Demand Forecaster” competition for 2012-13

This summer we have already been subjected to extreme temperatures across the country – and, more recently, extreme rainfalls and flooding events.

Now that it’s February our schools are back, and business back at work – hence it’s timely to summarise entries we received over the narrow Christmas-to-New Year window in which competition entries were open in our regular “Best Demand Forecaster in the NEM” competition for summer 2012-13.

To make it easier for our readers who are keenly interested in tracking where their entries (or those of their friends, colleagues, or competitors) are sitting, we have sorted the entries from lowest to highest, and identified which entries are valid for the two different kinds of prizes we’ll be handing out in March 2013, when the dust has settled on summer once again:

[please let us know if you can see any mistakes we’ve made in transcribing the below!]

Date Entrant Estimate BBQ? QLD NSW VIC TAS SA
27-Dec-2012 Aden Fanning 28192 YES
28-Dec-2012 Aden Fanning 28692 YES
27-Dec-2012 Reinhard Struve 28808 YES
21-Dec-2012 Darryl Nielsen 28810 YES YES
21-Dec-2012 Reinhard Struve 29147 YES YES
29-Dec-2012 Aden Fanning 29192 YES
24-Dec-2012 Aden Fanning 29301 YES YES
31-Dec-2012 Emi Gui 29710 YES YES
26-Dec-2012 Aden Fanning 29801 YES
31-Dec-2012 Phachara Niumsawatt 29863 YES YES
25-Dec-2012 Aden Fanning 30301 YES
29-Dec-2012 Matt Baird 30491 YES YES
24-Dec-2012 Simon Taylor 30492 YES YES
29-Dec-2012 Felicity Baird 30493 YES YES
30-Dec-2012 Aden Fanning 30801 YES
31-Dec-2012 Luke Van Boeckel 30950 YES YES
30-Dec-2012 Mottel Gestetner 31325 YES YES
31-Dec-2012 Alan Lao 31328 YES YES
28-Dec-2012 Jerome Perrin 31329 YES YES
28-Dec-2012 Michael Shelley 31475 YES YES
23-Dec-2012 Naomi Struve 31481 YES YES
21-Dec-2012 Elijah Pack 31482 YES YES

On 17th January 2013 the NEM-wide demand raced past all of the bearish entries (above).  We posted more about this demand event, on that day itself (at the time showing a demand on the NEM-Watch snapshot of 31,598MW – at 15:55).

At that time, the entries above were too low.

Date Entrant Estimate BBQ? QLD NSW VIC TAS SA
31-Dec-2012 Emre Cetin 31643 YES YES
28-Dec-2012 Andrew Turley 31680 YES YES
21-Dec-2012 Nigel Tarr 31721 YES YES
31-Dec-2012 Joy Chan 31809 YES YES

However the demand climbed a little more in the following hour, past 4 more entrants above, and (as noted as a PS to that post) reached 31,846MW at 16:50 on that day.

As such, all the entries (but one) above are already out-of-the-money for the the Beefmaster Premium BBQ prize (though the closer ones still might be in contention for the cinema tickets in certain regions).

If the hot weather returns in February, we’d expect the peak demand to push higher, into the more bullish entries below.

Date Entrant Estimate BBQ? QLD NSW VIC TAS SA
21-Dec-2012 Chris Muffett 31960 YES YES
21-Dec-2012 Matthew Holmes 32300 YES YES
26-Dec-2012 Reinhard Struve 32314 YES
29-Dec-2012 Andrea Graham 32499 YES YES
29-Dec-2012 Andrea Tschoner 32499 YES YES
24-Dec-2012 Anthony Ng 32500 YES YES
29-Dec-2012 Kerstin Holata 32600 YES YES
27-Dec-2012 Simon Fraser 32606 YES YES
29-Dec-2012 Geoff Slater 32607 YES YES
30-Dec-2012 Reinhard Struve 32900 YES
27-Dec-2012 Peter McEniery 32947 YES YES
23-Dec-2012 Doug Telford 33250 YES YES
29-Dec-2012 Reinhard Struve 33252 YES
31-Dec-2012 Mottel Gestetner 33325 YES
28-Dec-2012 Reinhard Struve 33330 YES
24-Dec-2012 Tim Astley 33333 YES YES
27-Dec-2012 Chris Scott 33338 YES YES
30-Dec-2012 Phil Staniford 33339 YES YES
30-Dec-2012 Ben Blake 33515 YES
31-Dec-2012 Torge Mees 33516 YES YES
21-Dec-2012 Justin Harding 33518 YES YES
23-Dec-2012 Reinhard Struve 33617 YES
31-Dec-2012 Ashley Lloyd 33933 YES
31-Dec-2012 Warwick Forster 33978 YES YES
31-Dec-2012 Aden Fanning 33999 YES
31-Dec-2012 Ben Blake 34026 YES
24-Dec-2012 Andrew Bray 34243 YES YES
28-Dec-2012 David Lahey 34434 YES
27-Dec-2012 David Lahey 34444 YES YES
29-Dec-2012 Tracey O’Donnell 34445 YES YES
27-Dec-2012 Ben Blake 34501 YES
27-Dec-2012 Ashley Lloyd 34555 YES YES
30-Dec-2012 Julia Mees 34583 YES YES
24-Dec-2012 Richard Hickling (trying for a 2nd prize) 34584 YES YES
24-Dec-2012 Reinhard Struve 34919 YES
21-Dec-2012 Peter Lansdown 34920 YES YES
26-Dec-2012 Ben Blake 35003 YES
25-Dec-2012 Reinhard Struve 35079 YES
31-Dec-2012 Laura Clemow 35506 YES YES
24-Dec-2012 Alex White 35507 YES YES
31-Dec-2012 Julian Bucheler 35508 YES YES
29-Dec-2012 Ben Blake 35521 YES
24-Dec-2012 Nicholas Chervev 35800 YES YES
24-Dec-2012 Ben Blake 36002 YES YES
31-Dec-2012 Lee Karssen 36003 YES YES
31-Dec-2012 Ritchie Holland 36209 YES YES
21-Dec-2012 Nyrie Palmer 36210 YES YES
28-Dec-2012 Ben Blake 36519 YES
28-Dec-2012 Olga Galacho 36999 YES YES
25-Dec-2012 Ben Blake 37004 YES
21-Dec-2012 Jeremy Halstead 38002 YES YES

Also identified in the table above are a few of the significant events of summer so far.

We’d invite you to use your own copy of NEM-Watch, deSide or ez2viewAustralia to keep an eye on how demand trends for the rest of summer.

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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