It is that time of year again and we at global-roam want to know who is the best demand forecaster in the NEM. If you are like me and working over Christmas (while both my bosses are on leave), seeing…
peak NEM-wide demand
Further analysis of the way that electricity demand patterns (NEM-wide) are changing in Australia’s National Electricity Market
A brief summary of NEM-wide demand this winter
More extreme weather drives extreme demand and extreme prices – on Wednesday 2nd February.
Some snapshots of a day in which NEM-wide demand soared, driven by high temperatures across the middle of Australia.
Some analysis of entries received in our “Who’d the Best Demand Forecaster in the NEM” competition for summer 2010-11
Our Christmas competition is back.
For those of you who are soldiering through the silly season, keeping the lights on in the NEM, here’s some light-hearted relief (and the chance to prove yourself the best demand forecaster in the NEM).
Some quick notes about how levels of demand are, so far this summer, much lower than they have been in recent years.
Summer 2008-09 is now well behind us, and there are a number of official reviews underway that will report back at some stage. Even so, we’ve been continuing to ponder a couple of things about what happened in January 2009…
This weekend, we have prepared this analysis of the entries we received for our “Peak Demand Forecaster” competition for winter 2009.
In conjunction with this analysis, we thought it would be of interest to also incorporate this chart (generated from a BETA version of the NEM-Review v6 software package) to highlight how the peak NEM-Wide demand unfolded over the previous winters…
The “Who’s the Best Demand Forecaster in the NEM?” challenge for winter 2009. Tell us the peak demand for this winter by 9AM Monday 29th June, and win your choice of espresso machine.
For those who weren’t aware, Winter 2009 has seen us offer our “Who’s the Best Demand Forecaster in the NEM” challenge – as a chance for the market to redeem itself, following what happened in summer 2008-09 (when the market surprised us all).
Wednesday 28th January saw demand across the NEM jump to unprecedented levels, setting a new record of 34,843MW at 16:00 NEM time. On Thursday 29th January, we saw the demand increase still further, leading to prices that stayed high for much of the day (to the point where the Cumulative Price Threshold was reached in VIC and SA and price caps were imposed), and a relatively small amount of involuntary load shedding occurring in VIC and SA.
We noted yesterday, in the midst of the excitement, that the previous NEM-wide demand record had been beaten, by virtue of the heatwave assaulting VIC and SA over the day. We spoke too soon, however, as demand continued to climb through the afternoon.
The day is not over yet, but we thought you would be interested in the attached snapshot highlighting the first of the occasions on the day when prices jumped to VOLL in SA and VIC as a result of searing temperatures stopping the tennis, and melting VIC and SA into new demand records for each region.
We watched with interest today as demand crept up in all mainland regions to the point where the NEM-Wide demand rose slightly above 33,000MW for the first time ever, during a summer period.
An overview of the final range of estimates received for the peak demand guessing competition of summer 2008-2009.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. Analysis of July has revealed that the peak NEM-wide demand for the past 3 years has occurred in winter – and has been significantly higher than the peak summer demand.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. February has seen multiple price spikes over the years often as a result of high demand caused by the summer heat, but also during times of surplus available generation capacity.
An overview of the estimates to date for the peak demand guessing competition of summer 2008-2009.