Entries in our competition for summer 2011-12


Leaving the office in the capable hands of a reduced team for a few weeks over the summer break, I returned to find that our semi-regular competition had taken an interesting turn, this year …

This year, at the initiative of others in the team, we undertook to publish the names and individual entries of each of the entrants (except if they objected, which no-one did).


As you might know, we strive to promote “Openness” as one of the core values of our company:
1)  Through our software, we strive to make the market understandable to a wide range of people – as one facet of working to ensure the market delivers sustainable benefits;
2)  Within our company, we share information openly about where we are headed, and how we’re going to get there;
3)  Through our Agile development processes, we adopt an open dialogue with our clients as we seek to (collaboratively) make our products better and better, every month and year.

Hence you’d understand that I don’t mind this approach at all – and, it seems, nor do a number of people who entered the competition again this year – though I do wonder if we scared anyone off (let me know if it did)?


So we wonder what we else we can learn given that the identity of the bidders has been revealed?

List of entries (sorted)

For completeness, I’ve moved the record that we’d temporarily placed on another site to here – this has also been sorted in ascending order of demand estimate, in order that you can easily keep tabs on who’s in the running for the BBQ this year:

Forecaster # entries Date Organisation Forecast Bid (MW)
Aden Fanning 6 30/12/2011 InterGen 31,003
Aden Fanning 6 29/12/2011 InterGen 32,003
Alan Lao 1 23/12/2011 Delta Electricity 32,326
David Sweeney 1 23/12/2011 Aurora Energy 32,400
Connell Burke 1 31/12/2011 Westpac 32,750
Chris Muffett 1 28/12/2011 AEMO 32,911
Aden Fanning 6 28/12/2011 InterGen 33,003
Bandu Gamage 1 23/12/2011 AEMO – Melbourne 33,025
Mark Roberts 1 23/12/2011 Attunga Capital 33,333
GaryWyatt 1 23/12/2011 ANZ 33,351
Alistair 1 23/12/2011 ANZ 33,500
Ben Blake 2 30/12/2011 AEMO 33,501
Jorge Heijo 1 23/12/2011 ANZ 33,617
Reinhard Struve
(see note below)
9 29/12/2011 in Adelaide 33,619
Ian Phillips 3 29/12/2011 InterGen 33,897
Brian Massey 8 29/12/2011 in Adelaide 33,999
Aden Fanning 6 26/12/2011 InterGen 34,003
Mottel Gestetner 1 27/12/2011 EnerNOC 34,008
Ian Philips 3 28/12/2011 InterGen 34,183
Reinhard Struve 9 30/12/2011 in Adelaide 34,184
Reinhard Struve 9 28/12/2011 in Adelaide 34,435
Paul Daniel 1 23/12/2011 ANZ 34,441
Steven Grotte 1 23/12/2011 ANZ 34,450
Ben Blake 2 29/12/2011 AEMO 34,501
Kathy Staggs 2 29/12/2011 NSW Trade and Investment 34,555
Elijah Pack 2 29/12/2011 AEMO 34,566
Tim Astley 1 23/12/2011 Office of Energy Planning and Conservation – Tasmania State Government 34,567
Elijah Pack 2 23/12/2011 AEMO 34,568
Brian Massey 8 28/12/2011 in Adelaide 34,579
Richard Hickling 1 30/12/2011 AEMO 34,636
Simon Taylor 1 28/12/2011 Powerlink 34,672
Brian Massey 8 30/12/2011 in Adelaide 34,673
Brian Massey 8 27/12/2011 in Adelaide 34,895
Aden Fanning 6 23/12/2011 InterGen 35,003
Brian Massey 8 23/12/2011 in Adelaide 35,017
Ben Johnson 1 30/12/2011 ERM Power 35,105
Ian Philips 3 23/12/2011 InterGen Australia 35,200
Reinhard Struve 9 31/12/2011 in Adelaide 35,327
Ben Hayden 1 23/12/2011 NRG Gladstone Operating Services 35,328
Brian Massey 8 24/12/2011 in Adelaide 35,335
Chris Scott 4 30/12/2011 Powerlink Queensland 35,351
Kathy Staggs 2 23/12/2011 NSW Trade and Investment 35,444
Brian Massey 8 25/12/2011 in Adelaide 35,645
Brian Massey 8 26/12/2011 in Adelaide 35,895
Reinhard Struve 9 27/12/2011 in Adelaide 36,145
Chris Scott 4 29/12/2011 PowerLink Queensland 36,251
Chris Scott 4 28/12/2011 Powerlink 37,250
Reinhard Struve 9 26/12/2011 in Adelaide 37,895
Chris Scott 4 31/12/2011 Powerlink Queensland 38,001
Reinhard Struve 9 25/12/2011 in Adelaide 38,145
Reinhard Struve 9 23/12/2011 in Adelaide 38,515
Reinhard Struve 9 24/12/2011 in Adelaide 38,645
Aden Fanning 6 31/12/2011 InterGen 38,700
Anon 1 23/12/2011 Anon 3,351,329

Out of interest, I’ve also included a column to make it clear how many entries each person made over the days allotted.

Special note should go to Reinhard Struve from Adelaide, who placed an entry every single day the competition was open – that’s some commitment (and a real need for a BBQ)!

Analysis of entries

As we’ve done in previous years, we’ve done some analysis to see what it tells us of where a collective view is of where peak* demand will end up (note we have excluded the extreme bid, as this is most likely the result of trouble making entries with small keys on smart phones!)

Spread of entries in our peak electricity demand guessing competition

As can be seen here, the consensus view seems to be that it will be a hot summer with demand peaking at around the level it achieved in previous hot summers, but not much higher (there are a few entries out to the right of this point, but they seem to be more defensive strategies from people trying to win the BBQ).

How do traders, and non-traders, compare in their views?

How do traders and non-traders compare in their views?  On the whole, it does appear that the traders are slightly more conservative in their estimates, whilst the non-traders are more bullish.

* Note that this competition is all about where the peak demand will land (even if only for a single dispatch interval through the summer period) – average demand is another matter entirely, as discussed here.

Interest in Electricity Demand

We saw last week Marcus Priest make a few comments in the AFR on Thursday 5th January about how the hot weather in NSW and VIC drove demand higher last week, despite the fact that many were not back at work.

Today it’s predicted to be a scorcher for the southern part of QLD – already temperatures and demand are rocketing up, as seen through this screenshot from NEM-Watch v8:

A hot day in QLD drives demand higher

Let summer roll on, in order that we can see who’s closest to the mark…. (and stay tuned here for more updates)

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

5 Comments on "Entries in our competition for summer 2011-12"

  1. Hi Paul,

    thanks for providing a bit of fun and entertainment over the Christmas break, and you’re right: I really do need that barbeque!

    But you are wrong in saying that I only submitted 9 guesses. In accordance with your Terms and Competitions, I provided a guess for every single day until 2 January 2012. But your analysis only includes guesses until 31 Dec 2011.

    You wouldn’t want to deny us of those valuable last two guesses on 1 and 2 January now, would you?

    Hahaha, gotta love people who work in the energy compliance area and read the fine print…

    Cheers
    Reinhard

    • Hi Reinhard

      Thanks for picking this one up (and please accept my apologies for the goof).

      I have updated the listing, and the analysis on this new posting made today.

      Like many, I will be very curious to see where peak demand lands this summer (and I don’t even stand to gain a BBQ!)

      Regards

      Paul

  2. An excellent chance to test the theory of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
    Maybe we should take the average of those with multiple entries and then the average of each individual’s pick and see if the “crowd” is indeed wise?
    Tim

    • Hi Tim

      Thanks for the comment.

      It is an intriguing book – it’s one of the ones in our office library that has been read and reviewed by others in the company (and I appreciated the Wikipedia reference).

      In updating the results table to correct my omissions, I also included another chart at the bottom designed to draw out, as much as possible, the Wisdom of the Crowds in this instance.

      Interested in your thoughts?

      Paul

  3. Tim,

    I would certainly be curious to see the result of such an analysis. If you find the time to do so, let us know the outcomes.

    Cheers
    Reinhard

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