Updated (and complete) list of entries in our competition for summer 2011-12


Ooops – I goofed.

As Reinhard has pointed out, I inadvertently omitted the forecast bids made on Sunday 1st January and Monday 2nd January.

In the updated (re-sorted) table below, I have include the 8 additional estimates made over this period (by Reinhard, Brian, Aden and Chris – who are all surely keen for the BBQ).  I have also adjusted Philippa’s entry, which was indeed a typo.

Hence, the following is the table by which we’ll adjudge the winner (or you can, too, if you keep an eye on NEM-wide Dispatch Target demand through NEM-Watch)

Forecaster # entries Date Organisation Forecast Bid (MW)
Aden Fanning 8 30/12/2011 InterGen 31,003
Aden Fanning 8 29/12/2011 InterGen 32,003
Alan Lao 1 23/12/2011 Delta Electricity 32,326
David Sweeney 1 23/12/2011 Aurora Energy 32,400
Connell Burke 1 31/12/2011 Westpac 32,750
Chris Muffett 1 28/12/2011 AEMO 32,911
Aden Fanning 8 28/12/2011 InterGen 33,003
Bandu Gamage 1 23/12/2011 AEMO – Melbourne 33,025
Aden Fanning 8 2/01/2012 InterGen 33,175
Reinhard Struve 11 1/01/2012 in Adelaide 33,332
Chris Scott 6 1/01/2012 Powerlink Queensland 33,333
Mark Roberts 1 23/12/2011 Attunga Captial 33,333
GaryWyatt 1 23/12/2011 ANZ 33,351
Aden Fanning 8 1/01/2012 InterGen 33,425
Alistair 1 23/12/2011 ANZ 33,500
Ben Blake 2 30/12/2011 AEMO 33,501
Philippa Kirk 1 23/12/2011 Transend 33,513
Jorge Heijo 1 23/12/2011 ANZ 33,617
Reinhard Struve 11 29/12/2011 in Adelaide 33,619
Brian Massey 10 1/01/2012 in Adelaide 33,896
Ian Phillips 3 29/12/2011 InterGen 33,897
Brian Massey 10 29/12/2011 in Adelaide 33,999
Aden Fanning 8 26/12/2011 InterGen 34,003
Mottel Gestetner 1 27/12/2011 EnerNOC 34,008
Ian Philips 3 28/12/2011 InterGen 34,183
Reinhard Struve 11 30/12/2011 in Adelaide 34,184
Reinhard Struve 11 28/12/2011 in Adelaide 34,435
Paul Daniel 1 23/12/2011 ANZ 34,441
Steven Grotte 1 23/12/2011 ANZ 34,450
Ben Blake 2 29/12/2011 AEMO 34,501
Kathy Staggs 2 29/12/2011 NSW Trade and Investment 34,555
Elijah Pack 2 29/12/2011 AEMO 34,566
Tim Astley 1 23/12/2011 Office of Energy Planning and Conservation – Tasmania State Government 34,567
Elijah Pack 2 23/12/2011 AEMO 34,568
Brian Massey 10 28/12/2011 in Adelaide 34,579
Richard Hickling 1 30/12/2011 AEMO 34,636
Simon Taylor 1 28/12/2011 Powerlink 34,672
Brian Massey 10 30/12/2011 in Adelaide 34,673
Brian Massey 10 27/12/2011 in Adelaide 34,895
Aden Fanning 8 23/12/2011 InterGen 35,003
Brian Massey 10 23/12/2011 in Adelaide 35,017
Ben Johnson 1 30/12/2011 ERM Power 35,105
Ian Philips 3 23/12/2011 InterGen Australia 35,200
Reinhard Struve 11 31/12/2011 in Adelaide 35,327
Ben Hayden 1 23/12/2011 NRG Gladstone Operating Services 35,328
Brian Massey 10 24/12/2011 in Adelaide 35,335
Chris Scott 6 30/12/2011 Powerlink Queensland 35,351
Kathy Staggs 2 23/12/2011 NSW Trade and Investment 35,444
Reinhard Struve 11 2/01/2012 in Adelaide 35,446
Brian Massey 10 25/12/2011 in Adelaide 35,645
Brian Massey 10 26/12/2011 in Adelaide 35,895
Reinhard Struve 11 27/12/2011 in Adelaide 36,145
Chris Scott 6 2/01/2012 Powerlink Queensland 36,223
Chris Scott 6 29/12/2011 PowerLink Queensland 36,251
Brian Massey 10 2/01/2012 in Adelaide 36,253
Chris Scott 6 28/12/2011 Powerlink 37,250
Reinhard Struve 11 26/12/2011 in Adelaide 37,895
Chris Scott 6 31/12/2011 Powerlink Queensland 38,001
Reinhard Struve 11 25/12/2011 in Adelaide 38,145
Reinhard Struve 11 23/12/2011 in Adelaide 38,515
Reinhard Struve 11 24/12/2011 in Adelaide 38,645
Aden Fanning 8 31/12/2011 InterGen 38,700

For completeness, I have also updated the analysis completed yesterday:

Spread of estimates:

The main perceptible change in the chart below compared to yesterday’s chart is that there is now also a spike in entries around 33,500MW – perhaps some last-minute insight that the demand might not shape up as aggressively as initially thought (or perhaps just hedging bets)?

A wide spread of estimates for peak NEM-wide demand

Traders –vs- Non-traders

There does not appear to have been any significant change in this chart:

Traders seem to have a more conservative view of where demand will end up

The wisdom of the crowds

In his comment this morning, Tim made the point about whether mechanisms like this could be used to assess the “Wisdom of the Crowd”.

In operating the competition in this way for a number of years, we have been curious to see (and share) just what might be seen in terms of where a consensus view falls (albeit that the results above are coloured by a relatively small sample size, and also the presence of the hyper-keen repeat bidders).

We can remove the 2nd issue (as we have done in the chart below) and we see that those who only entered once or twice largely cast their entries in the range between 33,000MW and 35,500MW.  In contrast, the keen repeat bidders spread their bets much more broadly, as could be understood by the different motivation, perhaps.

The crowds consensus of where peak demand will land

On the one hand, we could look at this and say that this is a “reasonable” outcome, given all the available information, in terms of how demand growth has been trending in recent years, recent economic factors, and weather forecasts for this summer.

However on the other hand it also highlights the problem that the infrastructure companies have in forecasting where the peak demand will land, and hence what the requirement is for sufficient generation, transmission and distribution equipment.  In those situations, there is much more than a BBQ at stake.

Simply put, there is a spread of almost 2,500MW on views of where the peak demand will lie – and this is for the current summer period.  This highlights the challenge in forecasting peak demand years in advance.

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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