AEMO updates forecast for supply-demand balance on Monday morning 20th May 2024 … now forecast LOR2
Following several changes in the forecast for Monday morning 20th May 2024, the AEMO has issued a ‘forecast LOR2’ notice.
low wind production
Low wind conditions to persist, NEM-wide, for at least another week
Following an article yesterday about ‘another challenging week for VRE NEM-wide, we take a quick look at forecasts for the coming 7 days and see low wind persisting.
‘Another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide, beginning Wednesday 8th May 2024
Coincidentally today, David Osmond has posted about ‘another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide (a week beginning Wed 8th May 2024 – the day NSW hit the Cumulative Price Threshold).
Low wind harvest in South Australia
Also on social media was a comment by Jess Hunt about low wind conditions in South Australia currently … which has prompted these thoughts.
Delving deeper, into Wind Farm performance in NSW on Tue 7th May and Wed 8th May
Looking back 4 days (including Wed 8th May 2024) at NSW wind farm generator bidding.
Generation gone with the wind
Ashleigh Madden of WeatherZone reports that a cold front has marched across southern Australia, breaking the week-long wind lull.
The wind is back … some days earlier than suggested in AEMO’s older forecasts
A short note (on Thursday morning 18th April 2024) about how (and some questions why) aggregate wind farm production in the NEM is back, earlier than initially forecast.
Brief Case Study of low aggregate VRE (Wind + Large Solar) on Saturday 13th April 2024 … Part 1?
Taking a quick look at the dispatch interval through this period of low aggregate wind harvest that also saw lowest aggregate VRE (Wind + Large Solar).
Has the wind lull of early 2024 Q2 spooked the futures market?
A quick look at how the current spell of low wind production has coincided with (and contributed to) a rise in futures prices.
Updated long-range trend of aggregate wind production statistics
An accompanying article, to update this trend of long-range production statistics for all wind farms (aggregated) across the NEM.
NEM-wide wind lull stretches extends to a full week (Tue 16th April 2024), and has another week to go!
A quick look at a period of low wind harvest across the NEM in April 2024 that’s already stretched ~7 days and looks like it might have more days to come …
Low wind production on Monday morning 15th April 2024
A short article to record low wind, particularly in SA and VIC on Monday morning 15th April 2024 – hence elevated prices.
Brief details of low % VRE on Thu 19th Oct 2023 (Case Study Part 1)
A short note (with GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q4) about the low % VRE seen NEMwide on Thursday 19th October 2023.
Queensland electricity demand climbs higher still, on Friday 29th December 2023
Some quick initial notes about the second day of remarkably high demand in QLD during the normally ‘sleepy’ period between Xmas and New Year (Fri 29th Dec 2023).
Case Study (Part 2) of Low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
The second part of an ongoing case study examining two successive days of low VRE generation in early July 2023. This part examines IRPM, earlier forecasts of available generation and maps the availability by site location.
Case Study (part 1) of low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
A brief article as a first Case Study looking at Mon 3rd and Tue 4th July 2023, in conjunction with the compilation of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3.
The 2023 ESOO modelling provides a more accurate real world depiction of Wind Farm limitations at high temperatures
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that AEMO is now modelling (more accurately) the high temperature degradation on wind farm performance.
Price volatility in SA on Sunday afternoon 13th August 2023
Continuing network outage, and weather conditions, leads to long duration of elevated price in SA over the weekend.
Mainland volatility on Tuesday evening 1st August 2023
Third article for Tuesday 1st August 2023 – recording some evening volatility across the 4 x mainland regions.
Price volatility in SA on August 1, 2023
Light winds and a constrained interconnector contributed to elevated prices on 1 August 2023.