Low reserves projected post Eraring closure… and earlier?
The results of the recent MTPASA (Medium-Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy), published on 17 October 2023, led a declaration of low reserve conditions in Market Notice 110284.
Low Reserve Condition notice
Tuesday afternoon look at the (escalating) forecast for Friday 3rd February 2022 … but later the forecast LOR2 was cancelled, and then reinstated
Second article (on Tuesday 31st Jan 2023) looking forward towards a tight supply-demand balance forecast for the QLD region on Friday evening 3rd February 2023.
NEM-wide IRPM drops below 15% on Monday 5th September 2022
A quick second article today, with IRPM down below 15% on a NEM-wide basis.
Load shedding *briefly* forecast for South Australia on Monday evening 15th August 2022
Another interesting development (briefly) on Wed 10th August was forecast load shedding for South Australia on Monday 15th August 2022
Tight supply-demand balance forecast for QLD and NSW on Thursday 2nd June 2022
A quick look at the current forecast for tight supply-demand balance on Thursday evening 2nd June 2022
Drop in forecast wind conditions for Thursday 12th May 2022 briefly triggers forecasts of Load Shedding (LOR3) in South Australia
A brief look, this morning, at the (briefly) forecast Load Shedding (i.e. LOR3) conditions for this Thursday 12th May 2022 in South Australia
AEMO forecasts LOR2 Lack of Reserve level for QLD on Tuesday 8th March 2022
After a week offline with the floods, I’m back and took a quick look at a tight supply-demand balance forecast for QLD this Tuesday evening, 8th March 2022.
AEMO to commence RERT (i.e. Reserve Trader) negotiations in QLD for Tuesday 1st February 2022
… and as a result of the forecast LOR3 tomorrow in QLD (Tue 1st Feb 2022), AEMO is commencing Reserve Trader negotiations.
AEMO forecasts *possible* load shedding in QLD on Tuesday 1st February 2022
Hot on the heels of Monday evening’s volatility, the AEMO has forecast LOR3 Low Reserve Condition (i.e. load shedding) might be possible in QLD on Tuesday evening.
Forecast tight supply/demand balance in Queensland on Monday 31st January, Tuesday 1st and Wednesday 2nd February 2022
A couple SMS alerts to AEMO Market Notices speaking about ‘LOR3’ Low Reserve Condition warnings (i.e. controlled ‘load shedding’) spiked my interest, so I took a look on Thursday afternoon about what’s forecast for Wednesday next week (2nd February 2022) in Queensland…
Evening LOR2 in the QLD region – and early ‘summer’ evening
A quick note about an actual LOR2 condition in the QLD region – Thursday 28th October 2021
Tight supply/demand forecast for NSW on Thursday 10th June 2021
A quick note on Tuesday evening, looking ahead to Thursday (10th June) with AEMO forecasting LOR2 in NSW with the cold snap, and enquiring about Generator Recall.
Surprise LOR2 (Low Reserve Condition) forecast for QLD next Monday afternoon, 30th November 2020
Prompted by an SMS alert this evening, we take a look at the tight supply/demand balance currently forecast for the QLD region on Monday afternoon next week (30th Nov 2020).
Four headline challenges amongst a very busy summer 2019-20
My participation in yesterday’s session about ‘Energy Technology – performing under (heat) stress’, organised by the Australian Institute of Energy, was an opportunity to reflect on what I saw as the Four Headline Events that gave example to a great many challenges we will have to grapple with as this energy (and climate) transition gathers pace.
Out of the blue, another LOR2 – NSW region on Saturday 1st February 2020
With the benefit of more data available today, can piece together why there was the sudden drop into LOR2 territory on Saturday 1st February 2020 (something that alarmed me, and resulted in AEMO directing a participant to make capacity – just withdrawn – available again).
A further look at Thursday Jan 30th
Guest author, Allan O’Neil does a masterful job with limited time in reviewing some of the goings-on in the NEM (particularly VIC and SA) on Thursday 30th January 2020
Thursday 30th January 2020 sees demand reach 34,257MW and LOR2 notice issued for both VIC and SA
A brief overview of a stressful afternoon/evening in the NEM, where a confluence of events (heatwave-driven high demand, low wind, coal unit trip, etc…) drive LOR2 low reserve condition notice in both VIC and SA, and gear AEMO up to call on Reserve Trader (yet again!)
Shaky afternoon ahead for the NSW Region of the NEM (as at 12:05 on Thu 23rd Jan 2020)
Not looking crash hot for the NSW region this afternoon…
More details on the bushfire-driven extremes in the NSW Region of the NEM on Saturday 4th January
All I have time to do today, looking into more detail of what happened today …. but note that the challenge is still unfolding.
Sweating on the return of Loy Yang A Unit 2
Taking a quick look at what’s forecast for the Victorian region tomorrow, with LOR2-level Low Reserve Condition forecast.