Summer 2008-09 is now well behind us, and there are a number of official reviews underway that will report back at some stage. Even so, we’ve been continuing to ponder a couple of things about what happened in January 2009…
high NEM-wide demand
We saw a massive new peak for NEM-Wide demand set on 29th January 2009, which surprised many (including us).
We return to that data and, by comparing with the previous 10 summers, see whether it should have been entirely unexpected.
This weekend, we have prepared this analysis of the entries we received for our “Peak Demand Forecaster” competition for winter 2009.
In conjunction with this analysis, we thought it would be of interest to also incorporate this chart (generated from a BETA version of the NEM-Review v6 software package) to highlight how the peak NEM-Wide demand unfolded over the previous winters…
A couple of weeks ago, we opened for entries in our “Best Demand Forecaster” competition – run for the first time during winter.
Entries closed on Monday 29th June (2 weeks ago now) but we have only just found the time to do some analysis of the entries we received, which we have summarised in the following graph…
For those who weren’t aware, Winter 2009 has seen us offer our “Who’s the Best Demand Forecaster in the NEM” challenge – as a chance for the market to redeem itself, following what happened in summer 2008-09 (when the market surprised us all).
On Wednesday 10th June 2009, temperatures plunged across the NEM for the first time this winter, providing a long-awaited dump of snow to start the season, and driving electricity demand high.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM – in which we examine the trends in price and demand across the NEM for the month of October.
We noted yesterday, in the midst of the excitement, that the previous NEM-wide demand record had been beaten, by virtue of the heatwave assaulting VIC and SA over the day. We spoke too soon, however, as demand continued to climb through the afternoon.
Wednesday 28th January saw demand across the NEM jump to unprecedented levels, setting a new record of 34,843MW at 16:00 NEM time. On Thursday 29th January, we saw the demand increase still further, leading to prices that stayed high for much of the day (to the point where the Cumulative Price Threshold was reached in VIC and SA and price caps were imposed), and a relatively small amount of involuntary load shedding occurring in VIC and SA.
The day is not over yet, but we thought you would be interested in the attached snapshot highlighting the first of the occasions on the day when prices jumped to VOLL in SA and VIC as a result of searing temperatures stopping the tennis, and melting VIC and SA into new demand records for each region.
We watched with interest today as demand crept up in all mainland regions to the point where the NEM-Wide demand rose slightly above 33,000MW for the first time ever, during a summer period.
An overview of the final range of estimates received for the peak demand guessing competition of summer 2008-2009.
Given that the holidays are now over (for most of us) and we’re returning back to “normal” life, we thought it would be a good time to provide a brief overview of what’s happened in terms of NEM-Wide demand, to date.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. Analysis of July has revealed that the peak NEM-wide demand for the past 3 years has occurred in winter – and has been significantly higher than the peak summer demand.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM – in which we examine the trends in price and demand across the NEM for the month of August.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. June has brought us several cases of “economic witholding of capacity” – particularly in 2002, and in 2007 the NEM had a very interesting week in which the IRPM plunged to its lowest level ever.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM – in which we examine the trends in price and demand across the NEM for the month of May.
An overview of the estimates to date for the peak demand guessing competition of summer 2008-2009.
The results of the peak demand forecasting competition for summer 2006-2007.
We did not run the competition for summer 2007-08, but we did have, however, some occasions to perform analysis of summer 2007-08.