Sweating on the return of Loy Yang A Unit 2
Taking a quick look at what’s forecast for the Victorian region tomorrow, with LOR2-level Low Reserve Condition forecast.
Articles by Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time.
As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.
High temperatures drive Queensland Scheduled Demand over 9,400MW
With Queensland temperatures (even at the Brisbane airport) exceeding 40 degrees Celcius today, the electricity demand was also high – though still below the all-time record.
The (ongoing!) opacity of distributed, small-scale solar PV output
42 months after I posted some initial thoughts about “the opacity of rooftop PV” it seems that – when viewed in certain ways, discussed here – the problem is actually getting worse, not better.
Exploring AEMO’s demand forecast “error” for Saturday 26th October 2019
Four weeks ago, we observed a significant discrepancy between AEMO’s forecast for (what would have been) a record low point for Scheduled Demand in South Australia and what actually eventuated. We’ve now had time to explore further…
Probability, Consequence (and Risk) as it relates to summer 2019-20 in the NEM
With summer 2019-20 fast approaching, we’ll use the refresher on the two core components of risk (probability and consequence) to unpick what the real issue is with respect to concerns about overheating electricity supplies this summer, especially in the Victorian region.
Analytical challenge – recognising the separate components in Risk, and their influence
A simple refresher on two core components that combine in order to define risk – probability and consequence.
First look at South Australia islanded on Saturday evening, 16th Nov 2019
A first (and perhaps only – as this took longer than initially planned) walk through some of the interesting points of what happened yesterday (Sat 16th Nov 2019) when South Australia islanded from the rest of the NEM with the trip of the Heywood interconnector.
Two big reasons why we’re engaging in forensic analysis of NEM events
There are a number of reasons why we’re completing the analysis we are sharing via WattClarity – here are two big ones.
3rd Case Study – Tailem Bend Solar Farm in SA Region on Wednesday 6th November 2019
Third case study in a growing series – on this occasion looking at the (extreme – and possibly excessive?) lengths taken by Tailem Bend Solar Farm to avoid being dispatched at times of negative spot prices in South Australia. This analysis is specifically focused on Wednesday 6th November 2019.
Do you know of people who can help us?
Readers at WattClarity might recall that we have asked the question above a couple of times in recent weeks – and a big thanks to those who responded already! We’re blessed with opportunities at present (have been for a while,…
South Australia experiences lowest (non System Black) Scheduled Demand in at least 21 years
Lowest point seen today since the start of the NEM (excluding the SA System Black) for the South Australian region.
Second Case Study (Daydream Solar Farm on Tuesday 3rd September 2019) – another eventful day
Our second Case Study in a recent series, aimed to help us explore ways to continue the pushing the development of ez2view forward, but also shared with readers here on WattClarity. This time about Daydream Solar Farm on Tuesday 3rd September 2019.
AEMO forecasts new “lowest ever” demand today in South Australia – but misses by 200MW
A quick look at what would have been a new “lowest ever” point for SA Scheduled Demand today at 12;30 … if the AEMO forecast had held to be valid.
All aboard the Negawatt Express … but where are we really headed?
Better late than never (perhaps?) today I post a few thoughts about the AEMC’s proposed draft rule change for the incorporation of NegaWatts into centralized dispatch.
‘Duck Curve’ delivers declining Minimum Demand levels in South Australia
An email alert from NEMwatch (noting Scheduled Demand under 500MW in South Australia today) distracts us, and prompts us to dig a little deeper at the longer-term trend.
A day in the life of a large-scale Solar Farm in the NEM –a Case Study of Ross River Solar Farm on Thursday 10th October 2019
Thursday 10th October 2019 presented another day of many negative price events in the QLD region. In this Case Study (prepared for dual purposes) we look at how one particular solar farm operated through this period – Ross River Solar Farm.
Investments in increasing the flexibility of Coal-Fired Power
Some operations at Stanwell Power Station unit 1 in the past couple weeks caught our attention, and are presented as a useful illustration of some concepts related to flexibility of power generators (in this case, coal-fired power).
Some observations about Storage
Last minute complications mean that I cannot speak at today’s “Queensland Smart Energy Summit” (with Jonathon Dyson being an even better substitute). Here are some of the observations I would have liked to discuss with the audience there…
Four quick thoughts, as the run of negative prices in Queensland continues…
The run of prices at $0/MWh and below is continuing in Queensland region this week as we pass into spring (many dispatch intervals today down as low as the Market Price Floor at -$1,000/MWh). This begs a few questions…
Longer-term trends of low (and high) dispatch prices in the NEM across all regions.
Our various dashboard views of the NEM (NEMwatch, ez2view and deSide) have been showing what’s seemed like increasing numbers of zero and negative prices in the NEM recently – particularly in QLD. Coupled with this we’ve seen various commentary on social media. Hence we took a more statistical look at what’s actually been changing…