Another look at conditions in South Australia next week as a forecast LOR3 now appears for Wednesday

Yesterday I posted an initial look at LOR forecasts in South Australia next Monday June 30th, where an LOR3 condition was earlier forecast for two periods on that day. Those LOR conditions have since evolved in subsequent STPASA runs.

In the screenshot below, we see that the data is now showing a forecast LOR3 for two periods on Wednesday July 2nd.  Forecast LOR1 conditions remain for Tuesday as well.

The range of forecast LOR conditions for SA next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Columns represent point in time, rows represent the recency of the forecast. STPASA forecasts are made each hour.

Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget

In my article yesterday, we took a quick look at demand projections and supply-side conditions (as then predicted) for early next week. Here, we’ll look at the schedule for constraint sets that are projected to impact the market.

In the screenshot below, we see the current invocation schedule for the next 14 days in SA.

Four constraint sets are currently scheduled to be invoked from Monday or Tuesday next week in SA.

Source: ez2view’s Scheduled Constraint Sets widget

From the screenshot, we can see that four constraint sets are currently scheduled to be invoked starting from Monday or Tuesday next week. A brief summary of each of these four constraint sets is below:

• S-BC_CP: Invoked due to one of the black range series capacitors on the Tailem Bend-South East 275kV lines being out of service. This set contains several transient and oscillatory stability constraint equations that limit flows on the Heywood and Murraylink interconnectors.
• S-TBSE: Invoked due to an outage on the Tailem Bend-South East 275kV line. This set contains several FCAS constraints that require FCAS services to be procured locally due to islanding risk.
• S-X_BDU+BC_CP: This set contains several transient and oscillatory stability constraint equations that limit flows on the Heywood and Murraylink interconnectors.
• S-X_BDBU+TBSE: This set contains several transient and voltage stability constraint equations that impact several units east of Adelaide.

There are currently four syncons in service in South Australia.

If these underlying conditions continue, we’ll be keeping a close eye on potential price spikes, and other market outcomes in the region next week.