It’s late afternoon Friday 24th January 2025 and I’m starting to contemplate when to start the walk home – but the temperature in Brisbane/Archerfield is still ~35 °C and ~50% humidity.
Which prompts a quick look at NEMwatch at 16:45 NEM time to see the ‘Market Demand’ at 10,543MW and climbing:
Here’s two views of ‘Forecast Convergence’ in ez2view looking at the QLD ‘Market Demand’ and we see:
1) On the left, in the P5 predispatch forecast:
(a) left-to-right, we see the demand forecast to climb
(b) ‘looking up a vertical’ we see the demand climbing faster than forecast.
2) So on the right we see the P30 predispatch view, but we should treat this a bit more sceptically given what we see on the left:
(a) In AEMO’s currently published P30 run the peak is shown to be only ~10,500MW
(b) But given we’re already past that level (early, and climbing) it seems certain the latest P30 AEMO forecast will prove under-egged.
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