There was a series of SMS alerts through the middle of the day today, highlighting that the ‘Market Demand’ point reached a new ‘lowest ever*’ point on Wednesday 1st January 2025.
* yes, for the pedantic, we’re talking about ‘only since the start of the NEM’.
Here’s a snapshot of the alerts:
We see that:
1) The lowest ‘Market Demand’ point was down at 1,400MW as the target for the 12:10 dispatch interval (NEM time)
2) This was lower (by ~56MW) than the prior lowest ever point set on 31st December 2023 (by this measure) … just over a year ago today.
Here’s a snapshot of NEMwatch at the 13:15 dispatch interval with the ‘Market Demand’ back up at 1,505MW:
We can also see from this image:
1) The fuel mix in the Victorian region will be of keen interest:
(a) this consists of only:
i. supply from the rooftop PV juggernaut; and also
ii. aggregate supply from the 8 (of 10) brown coal units still running to supply the ‘Keeping the Lights on Services’ required in the region.
(b) with everything else (including large-scale VRE) squeezed out between those two – as seen in the very negative spot prices (i.e. below ‘negative LGC’) in that region, and also in South Australia
2) We also see in the ‘Market Notice’ window the following warning about ‘Actual MSL1’ for the Victorian region beginning from 11:56 on Wednesday 1st January 2025:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 01/01/2025 11:56:13
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 122654
Notice Type ID : MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description : MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date : 01/01/2025
External Reference : Actual Minimum System Load MSL1 condition in the VIC Region on 01/01/2025
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Actual Minimum System Load MSL1 condition in the VIC Region on 01/01/2025
Update to Market Notice 122653 – AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC on 01/01/2025.
Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1398 MW at 1300 hrs, and the advisory threshold is:
– MSL1 – 1535 MW
– MSL2 – 1035 MW
– MSL3 – 535 MW
The regional demand is below the MSL1 threshold. The actual MSL1 condition is forecast to exist until 1400 hrs.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’
As we hit ‘publish’ here, the AEMO has not yet rescinded this warning of ‘Minimum System Load’.
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