Earlier on Tuesday evening, Linton noted that ‘Load shedding (LOR3) projected for NSW on 26 November 2024’.
That pertained to AEMO’s MN120671 published at 15:33 NEM time on Tuesday 19th November 2024 – so it’s worth noting that ~7 hours later, MN120698 was published – with a deeper forecast LOR3 highlighted (i.e. more load shedding potentially required due to a Reliability Shortfall), as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 19/11/2024 22:30:52
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Notice ID : 120698
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 19/11/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 26/11/2024
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR3 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 120671 has been updated at 2230 hrs on 19/11/2024 to the following:
[1.] From 1530 hrs 26/11/2024 to 1900 hrs 26/11/2024.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 397 MW at 1800 hrs.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’
Comparing the pair of Market Notices to see this newer one as more severe, we see:
1) This update talks about maximum load shedding potentially being as high as 397MW in the half-hour period ending 18:00 (NEM time) on Tuesday 26th November 2024… compared to 199MW noted in the earlier Market Notice.
2) The earlier update talked about a period of load shedding potentially being 16:00 to 19:00, whereas this update talks about 15:30 to 19:00.
So, wider and deeper…
…. but readers should remember that these types of alerts are designed to elicit a market response (so here’s hoping!).
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