If memory serves me correct, it’s not often we see any ‘forecast LORx’ alerts triggered for Tasmania … even at the least-severe level of LOR1.
However there’s a number of them issued for Tasmania for early next week, such as notified in Market Notice 117468:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 26/07/2024 15:02:08
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 117468
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 26/07/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the TAS Region on 30/07/2024
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the TAS region for the following period:
From 0730 hrs to 0900 hrs 30/07/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 555 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 537 MW.
AEMO Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’
Out of curiosity, I opened up the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view this afternoon to look forward into the AEMO’s ST PASA forecasts for Tasmania as follows…
With respect to this image:
1) On the left is the forecast LOR condition, which shows forecast LOR1 currently set for:
(a) Monday 29th July 2024 … morning
(b) Also for Tuesday 30th July 2024 … morning (as noted in the Market Notice above).
(c) Also for Wednesday 31st July 2024 … morning
2) Also highlighted is the most recent forecasts for ‘Market Demand’ on Monday 29th july 2024 … which would be very close to the all-time maximum record
What will actually unfold?
1) Whilst it’s with curiosity we’ll watch what happens to heights of ‘Market Demand’
… which will be, in part, because of the cold weather that Ashleigh Madden writes about today in ‘Prolonged cold outbreak for south-eastern Australia’.
2) The considerations of the tight supply-demand balance are particularly intriguing, remembering that:
(a) Gas generators have been getting a good run in TAS this winter … albeit that Tamar Valley CCGT was switched off on Tuesday 23rd July (and the peakers are also off).
(b) These generators were running, in part, to help TAS recover from low hydro storage levels … albeit (with respect to the forecast LOR1) that this is more of an energy limitation than a capacity limitation
(c) They were also running, at least in part, because of low wind yield through much of 2024 Q2 …
i. And, whilst it’s been quite windy this past week (including in TAS);
ii. This is currently forecast to drop significantly from tomorrow (i.e. Sat 25th July) morning such that it’s quite low on Monday morning, coincident with (what might be) record ‘Market Demand’
Interesting times…
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