In recent weeks we’ve noted ongoing discussion with respect to the closure of Eraring Power Station.
In particular were these three separate articles in various locations – which we’ve noted together here in order to provide an easier future point of reference for us:
On Fri 1st March in the AFR = ‘Eraring closure ‘tall order’ as plant underpins supply in heat spike’
First of this particular three to be published was the article ‘Eraring closure ‘tall order’ as plant underpins supply in heat spike’ written by Angela MacDonald-Smith just over a week ago (Fri 1st March 2024) in the AFR.
As highlighted on the image, this article from Angela referenced our earlier WattClarity article ‘So how much did Eraring Power Station supply, of the NSW electricity consumption, at peak demand time on Thursday 29th February 2024?’ published that same day.
Our article referenced, in turn, the earlier AFR article ‘Power market in the dark as negotiations over Eraring drag on’ from Wednesday evening 28th Feb 2023.
On Thu 7th March in the Australian = ‘Origin, NSW government negotiate delay to coal-fired Eraring power station’s closure’
Second in the list, published two days ago (Thu 7th March 2024) was Colin Packham’s article ‘Origin, NSW government negotiate delay to coal-fired Eraring power station’s closure’ in the Australian:
As noted on the image above, some of the wording in the article might be read to imply that the extension to service has been signed in some agreement between the NSW Government and Origin Energy … but I don’t believe that is the case (yet?).
On Fri 8th March in RenewEconomy = ‘How new wind, solar and batteries would keep lights on in NSW heatwave, even without Eraring’
Then yesterday (Fri 8th March 2024), Giles Parkinson wrote ‘How new wind, solar and batteries would keep lights on in NSW heatwave, even without Eraring’ in RenewEconomy:
In this article, Giles writes:
‘Many energy analysts argue that such extensions – and costs – are not necessary, particularly if all the planned projects currently under construction are delivered in time.
And to emphasise that point, they have released new analysis on what would have happened on February 29, when the temperature gauge jumped up to 41°C, and the searing heat didn’t just break electricity demand levels, they smashed them.’
… and includes a chart that purports to demonstrate that …
‘The analysis shows that the near five gigawatts of new renewables will push that yawning gap back into the later afternoon by around 2 hours until 4pm, and significantly reduce the scale of the gap it until after 7pm (see bright orange line).
These new renewables will comprise six big solar farms, including Stubbo, New England 2, and the newly contracted Culcairn project, totalling 2.4 GW, plus three new wind farms totalling 820 MW, including Uungala, Flyers Creek and Coppabella. There will also be an estimated 1.7 GW more rooftop solar.
The rest of the energy gap (in grey blocks) is filled by dispatchable generation, firstly by the newly commissioned 320 MW Tallawarra B gas plant owned by EnergyAustralia, and the 660 MW Kurri Kurri gas generator currently being built by Snowy Hydro.
In blue, there will also be eight new batteries totalling 2.5 GW and 6.5 GWh, including the massive Waratah Super battery at 850 MW and 1650 MWh, the 415 MW, four hour Orana battery, the 500 MW, two hour Liddell battery and the 460 MW, two hour Eraring battery.
The list also includes the country’s, and probably the world’s, first eight hour battery, the 50 MW, 400 MWh Limondale facility to be built by German energy giant RWE.
And there will be capacity from virtual power plants, including 90 MW from a newly contracted project put forward by EnelX, and a promised 826 MW increase from Origin’s own efforts to boost its VPP capacity, called Origin loop.’
I’ve inferred that the article (it’s not 100% clear) that the analysts who have released this ‘new analysis’ include both:
1) Tim Buckley (from Climate Energy Finance) and
2) Stephanie Bashir (from Nexa Advisory)
3) And perhaps others?
With respect to these two, it’s worth noting that:
1) We’d earlier noted on 19th Jan 2024 that ‘Clean Energy Finance analysis says Eraring does not need to be extended’ … so we presume that analysis had been updated/extended with respect to 29th Feb 2024.
2) In an opinion piece in the AFR on Tue 5th March 2024, Stephanie Bashir had written ‘The lights will stay on in NSW when Eraring is turned off’, and has been quite vocal on social media, as well
3) I’ve had a very quick search, but can’t find a direct link to this new analysis.
I’ve also noted that some of these new firming projects were the 6 x Firming Projects noted (highlighted above) in this media release from the NSW Department of Energy on 22nd November 2023, which noted that these projects were targeting an operational date of December 2025.
… nothing further, at this point.
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