From the 11:00 P30 predispatch run (NEM time) this morning, the forecast LOR2 tight supply-demand balance warning (noted in earlier articles) has been downgraded to forecast LOR1.
… That’s not shown here, but we keep a track of this in the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view.
Here’s a snapshot of NEMwatch at the 12:35 dispatch interval with the charts flipped to show 30 minute data, so extending into the P30* predispatch time horizon for this afternoon.
* long-term readers here might recall Tripwire #1 and Tripwire #2 introduced into P30 predispatch with 5MS, but they are invaluable feedback mechanisms regardless.
The ‘Market Demand’ at this point is 10,496MW (it is hot, so Underlying Demand would be much higher, just moderated by rooftop PV), and prices are subdued.
All eyes on the evening sunset period, when Grid Demand (however you measure it) will peak and prices are currently forecast to spike near the Market Price Cap in NSW and QLD.
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