What about those 2 x coal-fired units in QLD we suggested you watch?

Last Friday 19th January 2024 we highlighted ‘Two coal units to watch, in QLD over coming days – in relation to forecast tight supply-demand on Monday 22nd January 2024’?

Here’s an updated view of the ‘Generator Outages’ widget as at 07:45 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Monday morning 22nd January 2024:

It’s a similar, though not identical, picture to that seen on Friday.

1)  Thankfully, there’s no other outages marked for QLD units, or units in NSW

… thought I did see YWPS4 (in VIC) switch off at 02:25 this morning – I’ve not checked the reason.

2)  We see that the outage (Status = ‘Unplanned Forced Outage’) at Millmerran unit 1 has been brought forward to tomorrow.

3)  There’s been no change to the outage (Status = ‘Unplanned Forced Outage’) at Tarong unit 2.

Let’s look quickly at a bit more:

Millmerran unit 1

Let’s start with a ‘zoomed in’ view of ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget, focused on the MT PASA DUID Availability data and filtered down just to the MPP_1 unit:

From this we see that it was Saturday morning that saw the unit’s outage brought forwards, to start this evening or tomorrow (i.e. a partial reversal of the ‘delay’ move made last week).

Looking to see if there’s anything in recent rebid reasons to show what the underlying issues might be, here’s the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view, looking back 14 days and filtered down just to MPP_1:

Many of the rebid reasons suggest a limitation with the mill(s) and/or feeder(s) and/or limitations in the CV (calorific value of the coal).   Perhaps there is something in there that’s going to be the focus of the imminent repair outage?

Tarong Unit 2

In this case the outage has not shifted – so let’s go straight to the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view, looking back 14 days and filtered down just to TARONG#2:

In this case it’s clear the unit is suffering a tube leak:

1)  Which resulted in moving to ‘Fixed Load’ bids on 15th January;

2)  And which has deteriorated … to the point where availability was dropped further on Sunday afternoon (i.e. yesterday).

Let’s keep watch …