The NEM is an ‘interesting’ place.
Less than 2 days have passed since the remarkably high levels of demand seen in the QLD region, and (this morning) a series of SMS alerts have started, alerting me to how ‘Market Demand’ in Victoria had (from 10:40) dropped below the previous ‘lowest ever’ point set back on 12th November 2023.
Readers should remember that time here is ‘NEM time’ not local time in Victoria.
Here’s a quick snapshot from NEMwatch at 11:15 showing VIC ‘Market Demand*’ down at 1,615MW (lowest reference ever, at this point):
* remembering the gory details about how there are different measures of demand, and that AEMO increasingly talks about ‘Operational Demand’ whereas many market participants still reference ‘Market Demand’ .
It’s the first time I can remember seeing a Market Notice like the one highlighted on the NEMwatch image, and shown here:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 31/12/2023 10:47:14
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Notice ID : 112936
Notice Type ID : GENERAL NOTICE
Notice Type Description : Subjects not covered in specific notices
Issue Date : 31/12/2023
External Reference : Minimum System Load 1 (MSL1) in the VIC Region on 31/12/2023
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the Victorian region from 1100 hrs 31/12/2023 to 1400 hrs 31/12/2023.
Minimum scheduled demand is forecast to be 1300 MW at 1300 hrs and the secure threshold for the forecast operating conditions is 2,000 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
An insufficient market response may require AEMO to take action or intervene to maintain power system security in Victoria. This may result in action such as the direction of scheduled generation, curtailment of non-scheduled generation, and/or a direction to increase operational demand.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘
So here’s a quick look at what the AEMO’s forecasting in terms of the ongoing progression of ‘Market Demand’ in Victoria today, via ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view:
There’s a distinct lowering of the demand profile seen from the P30 predispatch forecast AEMO produced for 08:00 this morning (for reasons* that have not been explored yet). The low point of demand dropped by ~400MW.
PS, regarding ‘reasons not explored’, note that Allan was quick with a comment below to note:
‘AEMO’s on the day forecasts for Victorian rooftop PV maximum output have grown from 2,730 MW (forecast early this morning) to a latest forecast of 3,099 MW. Currently running at about 2,900 MW.
I’d say that’s the biggest factor in the falling market demand forecasts you’ve highlighted Paul.’
More to come, most likely …
AEMO’s on the day forecasts for Victorian rooftop PV maximum output have grown from 2,730 MW (forecast early this morning) to a latest forecast of 3,099 MW. Currently running at about 2,900 MW.
I’d say that’s the biggest factor in the falling market demand forecasts you’ve highlighted Paul.