One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time.
As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.
This evening we are experiencing a tight supply-demand balance NEM-wide, stemming from cold temperatures, and low wind conditions across the southern states.
Analysis compiled to explore what the impact was of the unusual weather pattern (extensive cloud cover and cold temperatures) seen across a large part of Queensland on Saturday 23rd May 2020.
While the NEM is a complex machine and it’s very rare that there’s ever a single ‘cause’ for any particular outcome, it could be argued that the systemic destruction of reliable coal fired power plants and removal of a material volume of dispatchable generation is the driver.
Notice how most of the price spikes are in the early evening, the head of the duck curve as it were, when solar (and to an extent wind) is less productive, and people are demanding power for cooking (and heating)
It might have been cold, but hardly peak load stuff. Cold overnight temperatures usually result in high daily energy, not necessarily load. (Dare I say the generators make some money!) What has changed is a not insignificant lump of relatively cheap SRMC generation (Liddell) removed from the market, so it all shuffles up the cost curve. Most energy in the NEM is (in reality) settled by bilateral trading arrangements – particularly so for the vertically integrated gentailers. Retailers in unhedged wholesale positions got scorched last winter you may recall. Now the energy served by Liddell is simply being supplied by more expensive sources on occasions when wind (and solar) are missing or the peak demand goes a bit higher and a higher cost generator bids in and settles the market. Your previous remarks about pricing when liquids appear highlight this. Nothing to see here – your new normal.
While the NEM is a complex machine and it’s very rare that there’s ever a single ‘cause’ for any particular outcome, it could be argued that the systemic destruction of reliable coal fired power plants and removal of a material volume of dispatchable generation is the driver.
Notice how most of the price spikes are in the early evening, the head of the duck curve as it were, when solar (and to an extent wind) is less productive, and people are demanding power for cooking (and heating)
It might have been cold, but hardly peak load stuff. Cold overnight temperatures usually result in high daily energy, not necessarily load. (Dare I say the generators make some money!) What has changed is a not insignificant lump of relatively cheap SRMC generation (Liddell) removed from the market, so it all shuffles up the cost curve. Most energy in the NEM is (in reality) settled by bilateral trading arrangements – particularly so for the vertically integrated gentailers. Retailers in unhedged wholesale positions got scorched last winter you may recall. Now the energy served by Liddell is simply being supplied by more expensive sources on occasions when wind (and solar) are missing or the peak demand goes a bit higher and a higher cost generator bids in and settles the market. Your previous remarks about pricing when liquids appear highlight this. Nothing to see here – your new normal.