Evening price volatility on Tuesday 7th June 2022

No time for anything more this evening than to pin this snapshot from NEMwatch for the 17:30 dispatch interval this evening and flag a couple things:


With reference to the numbered annotations:

1)  The QLD price is climbing, and up to $10,005.32/MWh in this dispatch interval

2)  Constraints are also at play:

(a)  On QNI this evening it is the ‘N^^Q_LS_VC_B1’ constraint equation limiting flow north

(b)  With DLINK it’s the ‘N^N-LS_SVC’ constraint equation making flow south of at least 120MW

(c)  These are members of the ‘N-LS_VC1’ constraint set:

i.  which is separate from the the ‘N-ARTW_85’ constraint set noted this morning

ii.  Where this one relates to an outage of the Lismore SVC (a longer-running outage that extends to the  end of September); and

iii.  But creates another example of how network outages are integrally involved in many volatility events.

3)  These constraints are creating a QLD-only ‘Economic Island’ … but prices are well above $300/MWh in all four southern regions (raising questions about any who sold CAPS for the quarter … more later).

4)  Across the regions we see:

(a)  VIC and SA showing modest ‘Market Demand’ still in the green zone of historical ranges

(b)  NSW and QLD have climbed out of green into yellow; and

(c)  ‘Market Demand’ in TAS has climbed well above that, in relative terms, and at 1,629MW is well into the ‘orange zone’ (all-time maximum on this measure was 1,781MW)

5)  Collectively this means the NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ is above 31,000MW … which is also fairly high on a historical range (what we’d expect on a cold, dark winter evening).

6)  The fuel mix trend shows:

(a)  a fair bit of wind production (but – at ~4,700MW – quite well below the recent all-time maximum);

(b)  solar gone to bed;

(c)  hydro and gas (and even coal) ramping for evening peak in demand.

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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