As noted earlier will be a close one (in terms of whether a new record for peak demand will be set) – the climb in demand potentially being offset by afternoon storms passing through various parts of south-east Queensland.
Here’s NEMwatch at 14:50, with a couple pointers added below:
1) Firstly, we’ve highlighted the ‘Market Demand’ cooking up in ‘red alert’ territory … at 9,869MW only 183MW below the all-time maximum (measured on the same basis)
2) It’s clearly been trending upwards through the day, with a few bumps here and there.
3) The highest point today has been at 9,924MW (in the 14:45 dispatch interval – just 128MW below the the all-time maximum set at 10,052MW in the 16:55 dispatch interval on Wednesday 13th February 2019), thus far.
4) The first major price spike (to $9898.98/MWh at 14:30) is seen on the chart.
5) The current fuel mix is trended, with no major disruptions yet shown due to the storm (albeit that the AEMO estimates for Small Solar are a little delayed in their production).
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 02/02/2022 12:52:10
Notice ID : 94439
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 02/02/2022
External Reference : PDPASA – Update Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 02/02/2022
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the QLD region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 94437 has been updated at 1245 hrs to the following:
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:
[1.] From 1600 hrs 02/02/2022 to 1900 hrs 02/02/2022.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 443 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 252 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
END OF REPORT
The other factor is the storms rolling through different parts of south-east QLD now, as seen in this snapshot of the 128 km Brisbane (Mt Stapylton) Radar Loop from the BOM:
The storm is likely to have two conflicting effects:
1) Suppressing ‘Market Demand’ by cooling the environment and hence reducing electricity demand for air-conditioning … if it does cool things down; but also
2) Increasing ‘Market Demand’ by squashing injections from rooftop PV across the south-east … if that is what happens.
Which will win?
A second, separate question is – how long will the storm last, and will demand ratchet back up quickly afterwards (if it stays cloudy, but hot and humid)?