As noted in this earlier article this morning, overnight there were also two Market Notices pointing to forecast for tight supply-demand balance in South Australia for next week’s Monday 30th June 2025.
Firstly at 21:53 (NEM time) on Monday 23rd June 2025, the AEMO published MN127753 as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 23/06/2025 21:53:46
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 127753
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 23/06/2025
External Reference : STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the SA Region on 30/06/2025
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR3 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the SA region for the following period[s]:
[1.] From 0730 hrs 30/06/2025 to 0930 hrs 30/06/2025.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 87 MW at 0800 hrs.
[2.] From 1700 hrs 30/06/2025 to 2300 hrs 30/06/2025.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 112 MW at 1900 hrs.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’
Remember that forecast LOR3 means forecast load shedding … and then at 22:36 (NEM time), the AEMO published MN127754 as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 23/06/2025 22:36:22
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 127754
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 23/06/2025
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the SA Region on 30/06/2025
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the SA region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 127726 has been updated to the following:
[1.] From 0400 hrs 30/06/2025 to 0730 hrs 30/06/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 350 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 0 MW.
[2.] From 0930 hrs 30/06/2025 to 1200 hrs 30/06/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 223 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 0 MW.
[3.] From 1530 hrs 30/06/2025 to 1730 hrs 30/06/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 224 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 0 MW.
[4.] From 2230 hrs 30/06/2025 to 0400 hrs 01/07/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 244 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 0 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’
Using a collage of ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets from ez2view v9.12 in the PD+STPASA time horizon, we see some of the picture:
I don’t have time to look further at this point, but (remembering that this widget allows one to ;look up a vertical’ in order to see ‘that other dimension of time’) we see that there’s forecast to be low Available Generation for the SA region on Monday 30th June 2025, in part because of low Aggregate Wind UIGF.
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