Earlier this evening we saw market demand in QLD break the all-time record – a record that was set exactly one year ago to the day, and at the time was thought to be something of an outlier.
The events this afternoon/evening came somewhat out of the blue, given the fact that (1) market demand landed almost 500MW above the prior P30 forecasts, and (2) it was previously expected that this coming Friday (i.e. not today, Wednesday) was predicted to approach the previous record.
These two facts prompted us to want to take a look at our forecast convergence widget in ez2view again. So, the image below is a screenshot of the widget (in chart mode) showing the range and shape of STPASA forecast convergence for market demand in QLD for the last 48 hours, and over the coming days.
Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget
The chart shows how demand this afternoon/evening overshot previous forecasts, with today’s actual outcome on par with the higher end of the range of forecasts for this coming Friday.
The next chart shows the same data but in grid mode (with the colour scale fixed), and is an updated replica of the chart that Paul shared yesterday. This view allows us to ‘look up a vertical’, which is our shorthand way of saying that it allows us to see how forecasts are changing for a single point in time.
Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget
We can see the forecasts for Friday continue to moderate. The current STPASA run from 8pm (NEM time) this evening projects market demand in QLD to be 10,851 MW for 17:30 on Friday.
We will be keeping a keen eye on this widget over the next 48 hours.
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