Victorian ‘Market Demand’ above 9,000MW on Thursday 22nd February 2024 … for the first time since 31st January 2020

When I posted this article at 15:20 (NEM time) earlier today, the ‘Market Demand’ in Victoria was up at 8,777MW.  Not long after that, the demand took a rapid escalation – which prompted Linton to write ‘VIC demand running above forecasts …’.

 … readers should note that Linton chose to show the AEMO field ‘Demand and Non-Scheduled Generation’, which is not the same as ‘Market Demand’, and not the same as AEMO’s more favoured ‘Operational Demand’ measure either.  Talk about the gory details being confusing!

Returning to NEMwatch at 16:20 (NEM time), we see that not long after Linton published his article, the demand in Victoria displayed a rapid about-face (presumably as a cooler change rolled through the region):

Per the notes:

1)  At this time, the ‘Market Demand’ was 8,850MW; but

2)  We also see that it reached the highest point thus far today of 9,260MW … which occurred at 15:40 (NEM time).

3)  Which is still more than 1,000MW below the all-time maximum by this measure of 10,496MW (set way back on 29th January 2009).

4)  I’ve highlighted the dramatic about-face on demand in Victoria this afternoon.

Curious how this compares to the recent historical range, we opened up NEMreview v7 and created this trend of daily maximum levels for both popular measures of demand:

1)  ‘Market Demand’, which we use because it feeds directly into NEMDE and affects dispatch and pricing; and

2)  ‘Operational Demand’, which the AEMO uses because it speaks to their ‘keeping the lights on’ role.

Those with a licence to the software can open their own copy of this trend query here.

As can be seen, the peak level achieved today (if it is 9,260MW, or if it climbs higher as solar sets) will easily be the highest level seen since 31st January 2020 (which was its own exceptional day).