On Mon 23rd October, the AEMO publishes Quarterly Energy Dynamics for 2023 Q3

As noted on the weekend here, our sense is that there’s a triptych of Quarterly Reports that each have different perspectives of a particular quarter just passed, and are best when appreciated together:

1)  Last Thursday 19th October 2023, the AER published its Wholesale Market Quarterly publication for 2023 Q3 … which we noted here.

2)  Today (Monday 23rd October 2023) the AEMO’s Quarterly Energy Dynamics for 2023 Q3 is being published.

… both of these reports might be food for thought and discussion at this week’s All Energy Conference in Melbourne (a few our our team are there, so let us know if you’d like to have a conversation there?)

3)  Subscribers to the series will need to wait a few more weeks for our next GenInsights Quarterly Updates (for 2023 Q3) … and we may choose to share some insights from this with our WattClarity readers.

(A)  About the AEMO QED

Prior WattClarity articles primarily about the AEMO’s QED are are categorised here

… we’ve posted more about the QED than the AER’s analogous publication.

Information about the AEMO’s 2023 Q3 QED report was published by the AEMO here:

With respect to the AEMO’s Quarterly Energy Dynamics report for Q3 2022, readers might like to note the Media Release  published by the AEMO which says:

‘Total electricity supply by fuel type saw renewables (wind, grid-scale and rooftop solar, hydro and other sources) contribute 38.9% of total supply, up 4.6%, while black coal’s share fell 3.4%, primarily due to the Liddell Power station closure, and gas fell 2.3%. Brown coal’s market share increased 1%, mainly due to fewer unplanned outages.’

… and …

‘Regarding new connections, 1.7 GW of new projects were progressing through registration and 2.1 GW commissioning to full output, compared to 2.4 GW at the end of Q3 2022. A further 10 GW of new projects were finalising contracts and under construction (pre-registration), up from 6.8 GW at the end of Q3 2022.’

(B)  Media coverage of the AEMO’s 2023 Q3 report

We’ve not yet had time to scan media coverage of the latest QED, but (when we get a chance) we’ll scan various media sources and will endeavour to update the list below:

1)  In the ABC we have seen…

(a)  Daniel Mercer published an audio clip ‘Wholesale electricity prices drop but don’t expect bill relief yet‘ on 23rd October.

2)  In the AFR I have seen …

(a)  Angela Macdonald-Smith wrote ‘Solar boom unleashes surge of below-zero power prices’ on 23rd October.

(b)  Mark Ludlow wrote ‘No escape from hot weather or high power prices this summers’ on 23rd October.

3)  In the Australian I have seen …

(a)  Colin Packham wrote ‘Rooftop solar generation peaks as black-coal fired production hits record low, AEMO data shows’ on 23rd October.

4)  In RenewEconomy I have seen …

(a)  Giles Parkinson wrote ‘Solar behind big price falls as grid demand and coal power pushed to record lows’ on 23rd October.

(b)  The QED also gets a mention in the article ‘South Australia potential wind and solar reaches record 264 pct of demand on Saturday’ on 23rd October.

5)  In the Guardian I have seen …

(a)  Peter Hannam wrote ‘Surging renewable energy sees record supply to Australia’s electricity grid’ on 23rd October.

6)  In SMH and the Age I have seen …

(a)  Nothing at this point …

7)  In PV Magazine I have seen …

(a)  Nothing at this point …

8)  In the Canberra Times I have seen …

(a)  Marion Rae wrote ‘Fresh records for renewables but fears linger for bills’ on 23rd October.

9)  In Energy Today Magazine I have seen …

(a)  Vivien Topalovic wrote ‘National Electricity Market prices drop’ on 23rd October.

10)  In the Epoch Times I have seen …

(a)  Nick Spencer wrote ‘AEMO Says Renewables Will Force Energy Prices to ‘Historic Lows” on 23rd October.

11)  In Energy Source & Distribution  I have seen …

(a) ‘Renewables push electricity prices down to historical levels’ published on 23rd October.

If our internal team notices any additional ones in the days ahead, we might add them in above … but if any of our readers notice more, please do point to them in comments below?

(C)  Elsewhere

Elsewhere we have seen:

1)  From the EUAA, we saw Andrew Richards comment here on LinkedIn  … including the note:

‘Constant negative pricing events as highlighted in the latest AEMO Market Dynamics Report, add substantial risk for counterparties such as retailers and generators (regardless of fuel type). This escalating risk is priced into contracts being offered to customers. ‘

.

(D)  Insights drawn out of the AEMO’s QED for 2023 Q3

We’ve not yet had a chance to review the report, but (time permitting) most post insights drawn out of the report as subsequent articles (and, perhaps remember to come back here and link to them here).

That’s all for now…