We wondered what the very, very low demand forecast for NSW (on Sat 26th Oct 2024) that might mean for NEM-wide demand – so we flipped the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets to look at NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ and our jaws hit the floor …
It was only 5 days (on Sunday 20th October 2024) when we saw a new ‘lowest ever*’ point for ‘Market Demand’ in NSW … so we’re amazed to see AEMO forecasting a low point for tomorrow (Sat 26th Oct) a fully 15% lower than that ‘lowest ever’ point.
In the following dispatch interval (11:50 on Sunday 20th October 2024) the level of ‘Market Demand’ fell ~200MW … below the prior ‘lowest ever*’ point set a few weeks earlier.
On Sunday 20th October 2024 we see a new ‘lowest ever*’ point for NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ courtesy of mild weather and gangbusters rooftop PV.
With AEMO forecasting possible ‘Minimum System Load’ in Victoria for the coming weekend, we take a look back at (our understanding of) some of what happened on Saturday 27th Sept and Sunday 28th Sept 2024, when similar conditions were forecast.
On Sunday 1st September 2024 the ‘minimum demand’ point in NSW ratcheted lower still – a drop of 6% on the preceding ‘lowest ever’ point set just over 10 months ago.
A 2nd short article falling out of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q4. This one looks at Sunday 12th November 2023 and shows the lowest point in 2023 for NEM-wide Aggregate Scheduled Target (and the largest ramp in Q4).
A tabular summary of how ‘declining demand’ has been an accelerating theme in most regions of the NEM (and NEM-wide) through 2023.
Fourth article today, taking a quick look at neighbouring South Australia – which has also seen a new ‘lowest ever’ level of Market Demand.
Third article today, focusing on an apparent anomaly between AEMO’s P30 and P5 predispatch forecasts for Victorian demand today (Sun 31st Dec 2023).
A quick record of Sun 12th Nov 2023, with ‘minimum demand’ dropping further in Victoria
A quick record of a new ‘lowest ever’ point for Market Demand in NSW on Sunday 8th October 2023
Echoing a question we’ve been asked – about the extent to which rooftop PV has been curtailed as a result of these minimum demand points.
Looking back at yesterday (Sun 1st Oct 2023) it appears to also have seen a lowest point for NEM-wide demand by both measures … lower than the low point set ~2 weeks prior.
A quick snapshot of one dispatch interval (of a number) seeing negative ‘Market Demand’ in South Australia on Saturday 23rd September 2023.
Hot on the heels of a new low point for Operational Demand in South Australia on the weekend, this evening AEMO warns of an ‘elevated risk of contingent disconnection of Distributed PV’ tomorrow (Wed 19th Oct 2022).
A short note on Sunday 14th August 2022 with electricity demand in QLD hitting new low points.
Sunday afternoon saw demand in NSW hit new historic lows for the second weekend in a row.
A different type of market notice today (speaking of potential curtailment of embedded generation in South Australia) points to the future … accelerated by Heywood repairs in this instance.
David Leitch of ITK Services examines how electricity is losing its share of energy consumption in Australia, while also looking at the main drivers behind lower electricity demand this Summer compared to the previous year.