A collation of articles pertaining to the volatility (forecast and then) experienced in the NSW region on Monday 12th October 2026.
Following his talk on Day 1 at All-Energy 2026, Henry Swisher from OptiGrid explains why there’s no set-and-forget strategy for trading batteries in the NEM, and how risk appetite, contracts and portfolios shape what ‘optimal’ really looks like.
Last Monday’s spot price volatility in New South Wales has prompted gigatokens’ worth of analysis on social and mainstream media. This post aims to cut through all these to the proximate cause?
In this article, we take an initial look at (restricted) flow capability south over QNI during Monday afternoon (12th October 2026), to help support the rising NSW demand - hence feeding into the volatility.
In this article we take the estimated gross injections from Small Solar (both AEMO and APVI estimates) across both days – and compare them, to gain some sense of what the quantum and timing of ‘missing’ Small Solar might have been on Monday 12th October...
Demand-side responses did occur in the face of large NSW price fluctuations.
Referring to the ‘framework for exploring what factors were contributing to the volatility in NSW on Monday 12th October 2026’ , we explore/explain broader Demand-Side factors.
Following this ‘framework for exploring what factors were contributing to the volatility in NSW on Monday 12th October 2026’ , we take a look at supply-side factors (including beyond coal unit unavailability).
We have a hypothesis for what the cause of these counter-cyclic oscillations (between price and demand) in NSW on Monday 12th October 2026. As a first step in exploring this hypothesis, here is a wall of numbers...
Here's a short article identifying (part of) a framework that might be useful - for those who want to complete a fuller explanation of the volatility experienced in NSW on Monday 12th October 2026 (which was not caused by just one factor).
Yesterday (Monday 12th October 2026) we started to publish two different threads of articles looking at two timeframes. In both timeframes, this look at coal unit outages is one (of many) contributing factors.
Taking a look at tightening aggregate availability of coal units ... one of the reasons for the strengthening Base Load Futures Prices in recent weeks.
So, at 14:30, no prizes for guessing what transpires – captured in two snapshots from the ez2view Mobile App ...
At 14:20 (NEM time) on Monday 12th October 2026, the spot price in (a very hot) NSW spikes close to the Market Price Cap.
As it happens (on this occasion) this snapshot from NEMwatch at 14:10 (NEM time) on Monday 12th October 2026 was pretty close to the mark to when it was forecast in earlier predispatch runs: Briefly: 1) The spot price in NSW is up at $1,341.98/MWh...
In a conversation with a market participant last week, there was discussion about the factors contributing to a climb in baseload futures prices … not just for 2026 Q4 contracts, but also later ones as well. Here's the first part of an exploration.
A very short note with a snapshot of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget within the ez2view Mobile App, highlighting some spicy forecast prices for the NSW region this afternoon, Monday 12th October 2026.
A short note with this ez2view snapshot at 09:30 (NEM time) on Monday 12th October 2026, to record a brief intermission to service at Project Energy Connect.