Tight supply/demand balance forecast for SA, VIC and TAS on Thursday and Friday
With high temperatures forecast for Thursday and Friday, here’s a quick look at what might be in store…
Seasonal Record of Events in the Market
Collections of events that we see happening in the NEM, categorised in terms of the seasons in which they occur.
Friday 12th January saw high instantaneous wind output in South Australia (but not quite a new record)
Prompted by a tweet referencing our RenewEconomy-sponsored NEMwatch Widget, we have a quick look at all-time peak instantaneous aggregate wind output in South Australia
Hot in Queensland today (Saturday 13th January 2018 with high demand, and volatility) but hotter still tomorrow
A quick review of a hot and sticky day in Queensland that saw high levels of demand reached on a Saturday – with demand peaks tomorrow forecast to be just as high (on a Sunday!). Today saw the first major price spikes in the Queensland region of summer.
A stinking hot weekend poses a reminder of the difficulty of forecasting electricity demand
AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.
It’ll be hot in parts of the NEM tomorrow (Saturday 6th Jan) but don’t expect demand to be too high – and don’t be trigger happy on the Emergency Demand Response!
Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.
Still a long way to go before wind forecasting models are as good as they will need to be as installed capacity grows….
Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen today in South Australia and Victoria.
Afternoon “Scheduled Demand” in Victoria on Christmas Day drops as low as overnight demand
Afternoon demand on Christmas Day as low as overnight demand as a result of several factors
Hot weather sees NSW demand at 13,000MW and NEM-wide demand above 31,000MW
A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high
NSW demand currently forecast to peak up at 13,500MW on Tuesday 19th December
Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).
Coincident warm demand forecast for VIC and NSW tomorrow late afternoon (Monday 18th December)
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.
“Scheduled Demand” in Victoria stopped short of 8,500MW today (lower than forecast) but the demand peak forecast for NSW tomorrow has grown to almost 13,000MW
Demand in Victoria peaked lower than forecast today, but demand forecasts for NSW tomorrow are continuing to climb.
Hornsdale Power Reserve continues to reach new milestones with a discharge rate of 100 MW today
Hornsdale Power Reserve a.k.a “World’s biggest battery” achieves new milestones – discharged at a rate of 100MW and charged continuously for nearly 3 hours.
High temperatures to give demand a kick in Victoria tomorrow (Wednesday 13th December)
AEMO forecasts higher demand in Victoria (and South Australia) tomorrow with the hot weather – and a slight LOR1 warning.
Electricity demand set to climb in NSW on Thursday with the hot weather forecast
With hot weather forecast for NSW this Thursday (especially in inland areas) it’s no surprise to see that the AEMO is forecasting higher demand on the day. Linked to this there is also a slight negative (local) surplus generation forecast.
AEMO updates generator combinations for SA system strength
AEMO has adjusted the formula (i.e. constraint equations) used to manage system strength in South Australia, which has been (since mid-2017) by constraining down the output of wind farms under certain conditions.
Big ramp in QLD demand Thursday evening to be first time above 8000MW this summer
Queensland demand ramped up, after the sun had gone down Thursday evening, to pass 8000MW for the first time this summer
The first stage of the Kidston Energy Park powers up
With Genex releasing an ASX announcement of first revenue at Kidston Solar Farm, we use NEMreview v7 to have a quick look.
Hornsdale Power Reserve (a.k.a. “the worlds biggest battery”) supplied SA for over an hour yesterday, peaking at 71 MW discharge
It’s 1st December 2017 – the first day of summer, and also the promised delivery date for the “world’s largest battery”. In this updated post we look at how it’s been operating.
Not quite summer and volatility returns to Victoria and South Australia
Some volatility with the hot weather on Wednesday 29th November – is this a precursor for summer?
Hornsdale Power Reserve (a.k.a. “the world’s biggest battery”) begins to charge, and also discharges for the first time on Saturday
It’s Saturday 25th November 2017 and what is currently known as “the worlds biggest battery” has kicked into gear – charging for a couple hours this morning.