Collections of events that we see happening in the NEM, categorised in terms of the seasons in which they occur.
A look to see how far WDR has come since it was introduced in October, and to what extent the units registered under the mechanism are helping to alleviate supply-demand tightness during events like last night.
An update on this morning’s forecasts from AEMO, published on WattClarity at ~12:00 Tuesday 14th June
A quick look (for Tue 14th June) of which of the coal units are expected to return to service in the coming week.
A first look today at what’s forecast for load shedding this evening (some very large numbers for both QLD and NSW).
Second article this morning, highlighting the very tight supply-demand balance.
Will need more time to think why Coopers Gap WF would bid in this way on Sunday evening with ‘Actual LOR2’ notices at play.
Small celebration!
It’s 17:30 and the white knuckle ride through this evening begins…
Another update late this afternoon, with Actual LOR2 in place.
Two copies of the ‘NEM Prices’ widget in ez2view highlights a disconnect.
Adding to the complexity of a dire supply-demand balance, aggregate production from wind has dropped below 1000MW today.
A short review of what we named ‘Instance #2’ in the yo-yo-ing of Available Generation after Administered Prices came into effect.
The outlook continues to get worse and worse… forecast load shedding extended to NSW this evening and into QLD tomorrow as well.
A quick tabular list of the 7 cases overnight where QLD saw ‘Actual LOR2’ and/or yo-yo Available Generation
AEMO’s updated forecast for load shedding in QLD this evening is for an enormous amount (1,454MW)
Here’s one example of the steps being taken by AEMO (which would ordinarily be considered as not advisable) to match supply and demand in the NEM (and particularly the QLD region) with Administered Pricing at play.
AEMO’s now forecasting load shedding for this evening … Monday 13th June 2022
First article on Monday 13th June 2022 with QLD under Administered Pricing – looking at not only QLD but also strange outcomes everywhere else…
At 22:40 the price exceeds $10,000/MWh in NSW, VIC and SA … with QLD under Administered Pricing.
Available Generation in QLD has been quite the see-saw following the imposition of Administered Pricing on Sunday evening, 12th June 2022. This is the 3rd occasion this evening we see ‘Actual LOR2’ warning.