A further look at wind forecasts in the ST PASA timeframe
The trend for declining skill as outlook increases is fairly linear. Encouragingly, outlooks at the 6-day mark still have better skill than random.
Unconstrained Intermittent Generation Forecast (UIGF)
An initial look at 6-day ahead Wind Uncertainty
Uncertainty fluctuates considerably in the 6-day ahead forecasts. Some locations, appear to be generally more predictable than others, Queensland sites in particular.
Mixed sources of semi-scheduled availability on March 23, 2026
We use a chart to see how semi-scheduled unit availabilities changed their origin. With interruptions to SCADA across NSW, many of the inputs that an availability forecast depends on could have been impacted.
Peeling the onion a little more – Solar Farm performance on Tuesday 19th August 2025, with the frequency spike to 50.2Hz
As the 5th article in an evolving series that progressively explores the (apparent self-forecasting glitch and) frequency spike on Tuesday 19th August 2025, we take an early look at Solar Farm performance.
Three broader questions (re)triggered by the Frequency Spike on Tuesday 19th August 2025
The (concerning) frequency spike across the NEM in the middle of the day (Tuesday 19th August 2025) has triggered many proximate questions - understandable - but also has raised these 3 Broader Questions.
Unit deviations from target on Tuesday 19th August 2025
It appears it was unit availability used to set the target for dispatch that went awry, rather than unit output.
High level view of some contributing factors to 19 August frequency spike
Among other aspects, a large dip in solar UIGF aligns with the frequency deviation observed on 19th August 2025.
Would it even be possible – to operate the NEM to achieve 82% renewable energy in 2030 (if the Semi-Scheduled category continues in its current form)?
Yesterday's release of the draft report of the Nelson Review has prompted me to re-frame a question I've asked before about the Semi-Scheduled category.
Opaque Congestion and Hidden Curtailment … such as on Tue 24th June 2024 with the ‘N-DPWG_63_X5’ constraint set invoked
It was now just over 5 years ago when Marcelle wrote ‘Not as simple as it appears – estimating curtailment of renewable generation’. This week's invocation of the 'N-DPWG_63_X5' constraint set provides a great case study to illustrate some of the complexities!
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 5 – afternoon underestimations
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 4 – avoiding SDC periods
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for wind units, Q1 2025
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
Games that self-forecasters can* play (Part 1 – An Overview)
I've promised to write this article for some time, but a few recent events (and looming start of FPP) have caused me to publish this now.
AWEFS and ASEFS dispatch availability forecast outage on 11 March, 2025
AWEFS and ASEFS dispatch availability forecast systems experienced what looks to be an outage and we uncover how the 'SCADA' origin filled the gap.
(A first step into the complexities of) the Dispatch Interval in the Real World
A third step in the 'Energy Literacy' journey in helping readers to understand the complexities within each and every Dispatch Interval.
A curious case of UIGF for Hamilton Solar Farm on Wednesday 12th February 2025 (Part1)
Here's a first look at (generating lots of questions about) Hamilton Solar Farm, and particularly the Availability forecast, back on Wednesday 12th February 2025.
AER sends clear message on self-forecasting behaviours
Semi-scheduled generators shouldn't treat self-forecasts as commercial parameters. The regulator holds significant concerns with the biasing of self-forecasts for commercial benefit.
Delivering oscillations, whilst seeking to minimise oscillations? A Case Study (Part 1?) of Darlington Point Solar Farm on Thursday 29th August 2024
A case study, drawing heavily on various widgets in ez2view, looking at some large (and unexpected) oscillations in output at Darlington Point Solar Farm through a ~2 hour period on Thursday 29th August 2024.
A year-by-year look a changing times for “Gate Closure #3”
Gate Closure #3 represents the cut-off time for solar and wind availability forecasts to be used in dispatch. Since 2019 the timings are reducing and narrowing.
Wet weather in QLD brings reduced solar output during August 12 and 13, 2024
The wet weather in Queensland has impacted solar energy production.