In part 3 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we dig deeper to explore… including wondering whether it would have been expected in advance.
Based on some preliminary analysis of the Powerlink’s ‘Qdata’ set (available in ez2view) we present our current hypothesis as to the sequence of the events yesterday in the QLD region, where 600MW of solar generation was lost, causing the price to spike to MPC.
Alerted to a price spike at 09:45 this morning in the QLD region, we discovered some reduction in load (spot-exposed Demand Response probably) and also a large collective trip in Solar Farm output (reasons unclear).
Some SMS alerts notified me of some volatile dispatch intervals this evening in mainland regions. So I took a quick look…
Yesterday evening (Tue 9th June 2020) saw an example of ‘dunkelflaute’ across the NEM. It’s a phenomenon we will see increasingly as the transition progresses, so it’s something we should be seeking to understand, and address, with real world solutions and not rose coloured glasses.
A quick summary of what’s just happened this afternoon (15:10) with the separation of VIC-to-NSW interconnector due to bushfires that have been plaguing the NEM this summer…
Took 2-3 times longer than planned (as there were a few different interesting observations that came out) but here is our initial – and perhaps only! – review of what happened in South Australia on Thursday 19th December 2019 (i.e. yesterday).
Some quick notes about the volatility seen in the NEM on Friday 1st March 2019 – a hot day in Victoria and South Australia, the first day of Autumn.
Taking a brief (well, actually longer than intended) look into the various factors that delivered a price spike above $10,000/MWh on Thursday 31st January in NSW – and thinking through the implications for one particular Demand Response client, and for the broader market.
Some snapshots from NEMwatch recording a day where NEM-wide demand breached 33,000MW and prices spiked above $1000/MWh in VIC and SA
Two quick snapshots of a high priced day in Victoria and South Australia – with the price jumping above $12,000/MWh at 15:50
An unexpected network outage in the south-east of South Australia restricts supplies from Victoria at a time of low wind supply in South Australia and results in the dispatch price spiking to $14,200/MWh from 11:30 and oscillating for the afternoon
Some volatility with the hot weather on Wednesday 29th November – is this a precursor for summer?
Tight import limits on the Heywood interconnector and a lull in wind output saw price volatility return to South Australia earlier this week
A volatile couple of days in Queensland, with demand response evident
Extremely hot weather in NSW and the NEM’s underappreciated “rail gauge mismatch” contributed to a sharp multi-state price spike during the afternoon peak
Quick review of an isolated early morning spike in Queensland
A look at last Friday’s short sharp price spike in Queensland and why it led to negative settlement residues on the interconnection with NSW
The volatility of the NEM was showcased again on Monday as South Australia experienced two major price spikes in the space of an hour. Using NEM-Watch’s play back feature (screenshot below) we were able to relive when the two price spikes hit.
A quick look at a price spike that occurred Monday evening (4th August) in South Australia