Latest MT PASA modelling results show now Low Reserve Conditions
The latest MT PASA results, published today (Tuesday 6th October 2026) show no Low Reserve Conditions forecast.
MT PASA
Our current hypothesis, for the strange-looking modelled results in Monday’s MT PASA data, relating to PEC Stage 2
Earlier this week, we looked at the first round of AEMO modelled MT PASA results for the Project EnergyConnect, and had some questions. After some digging, we think we understand...
One more view of that (first results from) this week’s MT PASA data, relating to PEC Stage 2
Following this morning's article, here's one more view (via ez2view) of PEC Stage 2 in the first MT PASA solutions run.
A first look at PEC Stage 2 in AEMO’s MT PASA weekly data set
I was curious to see how the PEC Stage 2 (i.e. NSW1-SA1) is being represented in the new data sets now appearing in the MT PASA process. Hence this initial view, which prompts questions.
A week later, AEMO MT PASA run shows only shortfalls in South Australia
Given the discussions about looming Yallourn closure, and the implications of this, worth noting a change in the latest weekly MT PASA run.
AEMO’s MT PASA run flags shortfalls forecast for VIC and SA (but the devil is in the details)
In anticipation of this month's release of the 2026 ESOO, a short article noting the forecast shortfalls flagged in this Tuesday's updated MT PASA modelling via MN144738 published at 14:52 (NEM time) on Tue 4th August 2026.
Some suggestions for the Nelson Review panel to consider (with respect to Forecasting) following review of the Draft Report
Following my presentation at NEMdev 2025 (on 8th Oct 2025), here are some suggestions that the Nelson Review panel might consider - with respect to forecasting.
MT PASA shows forecast Low Reserve Conditions in both NSW (Aug-Sept 2027) and SA (Dec 2026 to March 2027)
Today's MT PASA update features forecast tight supply-demand balance in both the SA and NSW regions at various times - in terms of both annual Unserved Energy, and Low Reserve Conditions.
Out of cycle MTPASA update identifies low reserves in VIC
ez2view widgets support quick understanding of the latest declaration of low reserve conditions for VIC in 2025.
Antony Stace’s question about the step change (down) in QLD demand forecasts in AEMO MT PASA runs during February 2024
A question this morning by Antony Stace (on LinkedIn) about AEMO's demand forecasts for QLD prompts some further context here in this WattClarity article, with quick use of ez2view.
Low reserves projected post Eraring closure… and earlier?
The results of the recent MTPASA (Medium-Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy), published on 17 October 2023, led a declaration of low reserve conditions in Market Notice 110284.
Enablement of ‘MaxAvail’ in the Bid for Semi-Scheduled units to go live (Mon 7th or Tue 8th Aug 2023) … and other enhancements in future
2 x AEMO Market Notices this afternoon prompt this article about four upcoming Market Enhancements ... with the first to planned to commence from next Monday 7th August 2023
What does ‘Forecast Convergence’ for MT PASA DUID Availability help us understand, about the ESB’s Final Advice?
Following from the ESB's Final Advice, and inspired by the one year anniversary of publications the MT PASA DUID Availability data sets by AEMO (thanks to the ERM-sponsored rule change) we take a quick look about both initiatives might mean for each other. More to...
Delayed Return to Service for Callide B1, B2 and C3
First short article for Tuesday evening following report from CS Energy that the return to service
Status update, on availability of the 48x remaining coal units across Q1 2021
Using an in-development (but soon to be released) widget in ez2view we take a look at forecast availability for coal units in NSW, VIC and QLD for the critical, and normally volatile, Q1 period 2021.
About ERM’s two rule change proposals in at the AEMC
Two earlier articles today prompt this follow-on piece, specifically focusing on what's being requested by ERM Power in two separate rule change requests relating to the MT PASA process.
Where’s Loy Yang A unit 2?
The ongoing (second) outage at Loy Yang A unit 2 is a timely reminder of the need to progress the 2 rule change proposals submitted by ERM Power with respect to MT PASA data duration, and granularity.
Transitional challenges require greatly enhanced analytical capability (exemplified in MT PASA Rule Change proposals, for instance)
A few additional thoughts about proposed changes to the MT PASA process, informed by our conclusions in Theme 14 within Part 2 of our Generator Report Card.
Questions and Observations–about AGL’s Liddell, Torrens A (and Loy Yang A) stations
Some thoughts about some important questions we should be asking, to follow on from AGL's announcement last Friday in relation to Torrens A (linked to Barkers Inlet and Loy Yang A2) and also about Liddell.
Helping our clients make sense of (and grasp the opportunities in) the AEMO’s new MT PASA data sets
A brief first look at AEMO's new MT PASA data sets - as we push forward in the next upgrade of our ez2view software to help our clients understand the data, and the opportunities (and threats) that the data reveals.