Who was the Winner? (for Summer 2006-07)
The results of the peak demand forecasting competition for summer 2006-2007.
high NEM-wide demand
What happened to the competition? (for Summer 2007-08)
We did not run the competition for summer 2007-08, but we did have, however, some occasions to perform analysis of summer 2007-08.
The return of the BBQ as prize for the Peak demand picking competition (for Summer 2008-09)
Guess the peak demand for summer 2008-2009 and win a “Beefmaster Premium 6 on Side Burner Cart” barbeque.
Who’s the best demand forecaster in the NEM?
The great bi-annual peak demand forecasting competition. Prove your forecasting prowess and you could win a great seasonal prize!
Who was the Winner? (for Summer 2005-06)
The results of the peak demand forecasting competition for summer 2005-2006.
VOLL Pricing on 23rd July 2008
It appears that we spoke too soon when we mentioned on the 22nd July that winter 2008 had been relatively uneventful.
Just over 24 hours from making these comments, we saw prices jump sky-high in the mainland regions, and go the other way (to the negative price cap) in Tasmania.
Long-Term Market trends and forecasts
As we have the time, we’ll provide some commentary here about the methods used by the various bodies for “long term” (which in the NEM means 10-years, typically) forecasting. Where they don’t fit elsewhere, we’ll also put articles here looking…
Volatility in the market over winter 2007
Our Managing Director spoke at the “Australian Energy & Utility Summit 08” in Sydney on Tuesday 22nd July 2008, touching on issues including the extremes of price volatility that were experienced over winter 2007.
“Power Prices Jump in Eye of the Storm”, from the AFR
Following from an alert to the situation provided by NEM-Watch, Duncan Hughes published an article “Power Price Jump in Eye of the Storm” that mentioned the extremely low levels of NEM-Wide Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (IRPM) that had occurred for a 60-minute period over both days.
Our initial review of the blackout on Tuesday, 16th January 2007
Our first review, linked here, was prepared the night of the blackout itself, and provides a chronological history of events, as seen through the NEM-Watch™ application.
16th January 2007 – Bushfires and Victoria’s blackout
Victoria experiences a large blackout in the afternoon and evening of 16 January 2007, when bush fires cause three main transmission lines to trip. This created chaos throughout much of Melbourne, and represented perhaps the most significant stress the NEM…
11th January 2007 – first spike in demand above 30,000MW
There was a temperature-driven spike in demand across the NEM later in the week beginning Sunday 7th January – culminating in the summer’s first demand peak above 30,000MW (on Thursday 11th January).
On this occasion, the spot price spiked above $1000/MWh in Queensland, NSW, Snowy and Victoria,