Out of the blue, an LOR2
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might have been expected, but...
Forecast Convergence
A collation of articles tagged with ‘Forecast Convergence’ – which is a way of looking at that other dimension of time.
These might be:
1) Articles using the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget within our ez2view software;
2) Or it might be other representations of the same concept, such as in our GenInsights Quarterly Updates report.
What happened yesterday (Fri 20th Dec 2019) in the Victorian Region? A first look…
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region - where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large...
Exploring AEMO’s demand forecast “error” for Saturday 26th October 2019
Four weeks ago, we observed a significant discrepancy between AEMO's forecast for (what would have been) a record low point for Scheduled Demand in South Australia and what actually eventuated. We've now had time...
A stinking hot weekend poses a reminder of the difficulty of forecasting electricity demand
AEMO's demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting...
Still a long way to go before wind forecasting models are as good as they will need to be as installed capacity grows….
Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen...
Collective skittishness about South Australia?
With high temperatures forecast for SA (hence higher demand) coinciding with low wind, social media references to "blackout" increase. Is this helpful?
Examining why Pelican Point didn’t bid full capacity into the NEM on Wednesday 8 February
Some thoughts by our guest author, about possible reasons why Engie did not bid full output of Pelican Point power station into AEMO on Wednesday 8th February (i.e. the time at which load shedding...
[Post 2] Later AEMO forecasts moderate demand forecasts slightly – but still looks to be massive
Demand forecast down slightly on this morning, but still looking like a record.
AEMO’s successive forecasts for NSW tomorrow paint a progressively WORSE picture
Here's an update on the situation in NSW
Initial Analysis: SA Load Shedding Wed 8 Feb 2017
A look at the supply/demand fundamentals in South Australia and explaining why load shedding was initiated.
Energy sector unions throw oil onto fire
Putting another cat amongst the pigeons, energy sector unions at Loy Yang A have announced Industrial Action at the station over Christmas.
AEMO notes low reserve conditions for SA (this summer and next) and in Victoria (next summer)
After an AEMO notice of Low Reserve Condition this summer and next in the south, I had a quick look...