Forecasting is a Mug’s Game
The three main flaws that put boundaries on the usefulness of all forecasting/modelling
drought
If I was going to assess Factors Contributing to the “truly remarkable” Q2 2016 prices, here are some starting places I’d look…
A starting list of factors that I’d look further into, if I was sucked into the “rabbit hole” of assessing all of the contributing factors leading to the Remarkable Prices seen in Q2 2016 – and which could continue into the future.
Some thoughts on the shaky state of Tassie electricity supply
Recapping what I’ve learnt (and highlighting some of the things I have yet to learn) about the electricity supply crisis currently facing Tasmania
To what extent is Wind reducing spot prices in South Australia?
Some starting thoughts, about the extent to which increased wind farm output has been responsible in the drop in spot prices in South Australia from the high levels seen in 2008.
Hydro generation increases with La Nina
An article recently in one of the main papers about increased flows down the Snowy River prompted the question, internally, about how much the La Nina pattern of the past 24 months had impacted on production volumes from the hydro facilities around the NEM.
How the drought of 2007 affected specific power stations
I have been asked a couple of times recently, by new entrants to the NEM, about the impact of the drought in 2007 on generation levels around the NEM. This prompted me to look at what we had posted previously…
Fuel Costs – some views supporting higher electricity prices in the future
Some thoughts about drivers supporting higher fuel costs – and hence driving electricity prices higher in future (assembled from comments made at EUAA events, and elsewhere).
Trend in generation by fuel type
Brief analysis of the trend in production (across the NEM) by fuel type.
AFR says “Emissions have fallen"! Here’s some more data…
Some analysis prompted by a short article in the AFR talking about a reduction in emissions over summer 2009-10 (with the possible implication being that emissions have turned the corner).
April in the NEM (a review of 10 years of history)
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. Here we present a detailed analysis of prices in each region of the NEM, for the month of April over the past 10 years.
Drought of 2007
Here’s some articles about the impact of the drought on the NEM – culminating in a stepped change in prices, and changes to dispatch patterns, etc…
11th January 2007 – first spike in demand above 30,000MW
There was a temperature-driven spike in demand across the NEM later in the week beginning Sunday 7th January – culminating in the summer’s first demand peak above 30,000MW (on Thursday 11th January).
On this occasion, the spot price spiked above $1000/MWh in Queensland, NSW, Snowy and Victoria,
21st November 2006 – demand spike in NSW
There was a temperature-driven spike in demand in NSW on Tuesday 21st November 2006.
These sweltering temperatures combined with bushfires to cause localised blackouts in the Sydney city area, as reported in the Sydney Morning Herald in the article “Power jitters as heat bites”.