‘the ISP Step Change Scenario is divorced from reality’

As noted here earlier today, yesterday I appreciated the opportunity to attend day 1 of the CEC’s QCES … including hearing presentations and discussion on a couple of different sessions – including the ‘Faster than Forecast’ session to wrap up day 1.

Though I wondered if the session might have been more accurately been namedSlower than the High-Profiles Models would Hope’ given the comments that emerged from several speakers … including Oliver Nunn from Endgame Analytics – who cut through with several comments, including the note that ‘the ISP Step Change Scenario is divorced from reality’ with respect to the 2024 ISP:

2025-09-15-CEC-QCES-OliverNunn-about-the-ISP

There was plenty of detail in Oliver’s presentation (way more than I have time to note here – and even then I would not do it justice), but worth flagging the follow-on question I asked in the panel session at the end:

2025-09-15-CEC-QCES-OliverNunn-MyQuestion

For me, there’s certainly a large note of ‘Emperors New Clothes’ prevalent in relation to this … referring back to my articles from years-gone-by about Villain #1.

 

Two additional points:

1)  Coincidentally I note that the same slide from Oliver above also resonated with Sam Markham from Fluence, who included it in her update on LinkedIn here.

2)  Perhaps at some point Oliver might have time to add to his tally of guest authored articles here on WattClarity, but I assume that this might take some time.


About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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