A collation of articles by, or relating to, Oliver Nunn and the team at Endgame Analytics.
On slide from the Endgame seminar today in Brisbane focused on the recent 4-day wind lull in South Australia. Many points resonated, but I want to flag just two ...
No less of interest for me will be this Tuesday’s Endgame seminar in Brisbane, titled ‘Expanding the modeller’s toolkit’.
The reasonable response is not to model the world as simpler than it is, but to confront its variability head-on: to treat stochastic inputs as stochastic, to plan for the distribution rather than its midpoint, and to build the margin of safety that resilience demands.
In this guest-authored article by Endgame Economics, Oliver Nunn examines growing 'noise' in NEM spot prices — how increasingly frequent oscillations appear to have a structural, intraday pattern, what may be driving it, and why it matters for market behaviour and battery investment outcomes.
This article by Endgame Analytics explains why average or median forecasts are becoming increasingly inadequate, using multi-year weather and supply stress testing to expose the true distribution of outcomes, risks, and reliability challenges in a high-renewables power system.
This analysis from Endgame Analytics highlights how solar revenues are increasingly concentrated in winter and shoulder periods as daytime prices collapse. Using historical data and forward modelling, it examines what the deepening duck curve means for solar returns, risk, and the need for seasonal storage.
Returning for the second day of CEC QCES in the 'Long Duration Energy Storage' Oliver Nunn shared more insights from the Endgame modelling.
A short article to wrap up some of the content delivered in the Long Duration Energy Storage session at the CEC's QRES 2025.
A short note about some comments made by Oliver Nunn during the 'Faster than Forecast' session at Queensland Clean Energy Summit on Mon 15th Sept 2025.
Oliver Nunn from Endgame Economics argues that we must begin to think about the distribution of prices in the NEM as a function of weather.
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 3: "Defense against the dark arts"
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 2: "Operational dispatch modelling"
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 1: "Building the Arena"
Oliver Nunn of Endgame Analytics provides this summary of NSW price, demand and generation trends to provide context about what has happened in the region over the past several weeks.
New guest author, Ryan Esplin progressively builds a more precise model of the NEMDE dispatch process to illustrate why the stylised 'Merit Order' bid stack model is increasingly not enough to explain dispatch and price outcomes in the NEM