A brief, and initial (possibly more to follow) review of what happened when the AWEFS and ASEFS dispatch availability forecast systems stopped working on 11 March 2025.
The chart below summarises how many Megawatts of available VRE (variable renewable energy) was forecast (as unconstrained intermittent generation forecasts, UIGFs) for each interval in the leadup to the 16:05 interval, and subsequent intervals.
There are many inputs and a variety of paths that can be taken to produce the UIGFs that represent a unit’s availability. Further detail on this, and how the AWEFS_ASEFS system contributes, can be uncovered in What inputs and processes determine a semi-scheduled unit’s availability.
To-date, using the publicly available data (published up to 4 am on the 12th), we find the last AWEFS_ASEFS forecast was issued for the 16:00 dispatch interval. Current reports indicate that systems returned to normal at 09:40 on the 12th.
‘SCADA’ forecasts fulfilled the role of substitute, as indicated by the purple in the chart. Use of this forecast origin means each unit’s measured MW output (just before the beginning of the interval) is used as the forecast for the end of the interval. A persistence forecast.
Participant self-forecasts appear unaffected. Yet, with the outage on AWEFS and ASEFS systems no fallback to AWEFS_ASEFS would be possible if the self forecast is suppressed. ‘SCADA’ would presumably be used in any such cases.
At the time (16:00) availability of 3,668 MW (the last pink column segment) of available generation from units using ASEFS or AWEFS appears to have switched to the substitute forecast origin.
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