AWEFS is the acronym of the Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System.


(A) Purpose of AWEFS

As at 22nd May 2024, the AEMO notes the following here as the purpose of AWEFS:

‘The Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS) was established in response to the growth in intermittent generation in the NEM, and the increasing impact this growth was having on NEM forecasting processes. The system aims to provide better forecasts that will drive improved efficiency of overall NEM dispatch and pricing, and permit better network stability and security management.’


(B) Evolution of AWEFS

This Glossary Page for ‘The Semi-Scheduled Category’ provides a more detailed tabular chronology of the evolution of the Semi-Scheduled category in general terms.

In this table we just focus on the evolution of AWEFS.

Date Milestone
(re the evolution of AWEFS for producing UIGF for Wind Farms)
31st March 2009

The Semi-Scheduled category came into existence.

A key development to facilitate this change was the introduction of the Unconstrained Intermittent Generation Forecast (UIGF) for each Wind Farm DUID.

… this UIGF value then set the Availability figure in the bid used by NEMDE, and the MaxAvail figure in the bid was ignored (up until 7th August 2023, as noted here).

Let’s call this development Version 1 of AEMO’s AWEFS forecast.  At the time the production of this forecast was outsource by the AEMO to a service provider based in Europe.

AWEFS was required to provide Availability forecasts for time horizons including:

Time Horizon #1)  In the ST PASA  time horizon (out 8 days into the future);

Time Horizon #2)  In the P30 predispatch time horizon (out until 04:00 tomorrow or the day after);

Time Horizon #3)  In the P5 predispatch time horizon (out eleven dispatch intervals into the future); and

Time Horizon #4)  In the dispatch interval time horizon (i.e. a forecast, at the start of the dispatch interval, of what was possible for the end of the interval).

23rd Nov 2022

As noted in this article at the time, AEMO began to use its improved ASEFS and AWEFS forecasts.

Let’s call this development Version 2 of AEMO’s AWEFS forecast.  In contrast to version 1, this version was designed and developed internally at the AEMO, and runs internally.

Will add more here, as time permits.


(C) AEMO documentation about AWEFS

For those looking for more information, the AEMO has a sub-site here on the Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System.