Stubborn forecast LOR2 for NSW on Friday afternoon/evening 7th February 2025

At 10:42 (NEM time) this morning the AEMO published MN124235 pertaining to tomorrow (Friday 7th February 2024) as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     06/02/2025     10:42:55

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Notice ID               :         124235
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         06/02/2025
External Reference      :         STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 07/02/2025

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 124230 has been updated at 1000 hrs 06/02/2025 to the following:

From 1600 hrs to 1930 hrs 07/02/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1092 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 574 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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… so I thought I’d take a quick look at a few different AEMO data points with 2 different windows in ez2view at the 11:10 dispatch interval – starting with this triptych of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget:

Remember to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’.

Doing this we see:

1)  In the top widget, the stubborn forecast LOR2 in the NSW region

2)  In the middle widget we see the forecast for ‘Market Demand’ for Friday afternoon/evening fading somewhat, compared to earlier forecasts.

3)  In the bottom widget, however, we see a new sliver of redder colour in the top horizontal … and wonder if this is the result of Eraring unit 3 coming offline overnight:

In the second window, we see two other widgets:

Note in particular:

1)  In the filtered ‘Constraint Sets’ widget, the gantt chart view has been filtered down to show only outage-related constraints that will affect the 330kV lines coming into central NSW from the south:

(a)  We note that the outage on the Collector – Marulan (4) 330kV line has ended earlier (seen in the ‘N-CTMN_4_WG_CLOSE’ constraint set), and that’s good news that the AEMO celebrated in MN124232.

(b)  But also note the currently planned invocation of the ‘N-AVMA_17’ constraint set (which would affect the  Avon to Macarthur (17) 330kV line).

2)  In the bottom, we see that:

(a)  There’s an unplanned outage of Bayswater unit 2 that might end today … fingers crossed.

(b)  There’s also an unplanned outage of Eraring unit 1 that definitely looks set to run through for the best part of next week

(c)  And there’s the question mark about the outage of Eraring unit 3.

So watch this space…