As we’ve already noted, just before 10am this morning the AEMO announced their intention to initiate RERT negotiations in NSW this afternoon. And now, at around 11am, we’ve seen that the AEMO has just published a press release for the wider public:
“AEMO is working with industry to manage electricity reliability during high-demand, heatwave conditions in New South Wales with major power stations unavailable due to forced and planned outages.
We have flagged this risk to industry through market notices (lack of reserve) urging all available generation to return to service and restore all available powerlines across the grid to meet consumers’ electricity needs.
In addition, AEMO is looking to procure additional reserves (reliability and emergency reserve trader, RERT) to best manage low electricity supply forecast this afternoon and early evening.
We’re closely monitoring the situation and will keep stakeholders informed.”
This comes after the AEMO published a separate press release 42 hours earlier, likely in response to extensive media coverage warning of possible ‘blackouts’ in NSW.
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Below is an updated look at the forecast LOR conditions for this afternoon – where we are now in the P30 window. We can see that the forecast LOR3 condition reappeared for four hours this morning (between the 07:30 and the 11:30 forecast run).
As we now move within the P30 window, we see that the forecast LOR3 condition reappeared for four hours this morning.
Columns represent point in time, rows represent the recency of the forecast.
Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget
One contributing factor was an uptick in the demand forecast for NSW. In the forecast convergence line chart below we can see two groups of lines, with a roughly 200MW gap in between. The gap shows the change in forecasts beginning from the 07:30 run (coinciding with the reappearance of forecast LOR3 condition).
Demand forecasts for this afternoon began rising from the 07:30 P30 forecast run.
Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget
Whilst a ~200 MW difference in demand is a relatively small change – especially when compared to total demand (which is currently forecast to peak at 12,019MW at 17:00 in NSW this afternoon, NEM time) – it does highlight how tight the supply-demand situation is currently looking in the region.
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