Given the tight supply-demand balance forecast for NSW and QLD on Monday 25th November 2024, Tuesday 26th November 2024, and Wednesday 27th November 2024 (especially Wednesday, with more than 1000MW of load shedding currently forecast), and even perhaps Thursday 28th November 2024, it’s worth revisiting the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view at 15:35 on Sunday 24th November 2024 to show what the current status is of generator outage plans:
1) For fully Scheduled units
… noting that Semi-Scheduled units are invisible in this respect
2) For QLD and NSW only
3) filtering out units smaller than 200MW.
To be clear, the filter used was this one:
There’s some nuance in the detail that our ez2view clients can delve into, but for general consumption note the number of units with planned outages (i.e. grey cells) spanning those days above … with the NEM caught out by what’s perhaps sooner-than-expected hot weather forecast for NSW:
Additionally note the unplanned outages at BW03 (a significant one, given the forecasts) and GSTONE5 and TNPS1.
In terms of things to watch
1) Can any of those on forced outage be brought back in time for Wednesday?
… seems unlikely, given the number of days set to go beyond Tuesday
2) Can the planned outage at ER03 be finished sooner so the unit is online for Wednesday?
… probably slightly more chance than for the other units, but still difficult to do (no doubt AEMO will have spoken with Origin to ascertain this possibility).
3) Collective breaths will be held for the return to service for Kogan Creek on Wednesday morning, as well.
Stay tuned…
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